Friday, 31 July 2020

Climate Change - The UK in 2019

The State of the UK Climate report, published by the Royal Meteorological Society shows that UK temperatures in 2019 were 1.1° C above the 1961-1990 long-term average.

Mike Kendon, lead author of the report, said: “Our report shows climate change is exerting an increasing impact on the UK.

“This year was warmer than any other year in the UK between 1884 and 1990, and to find a year in the coldest 10 we have to go back to 1963.”

Dr Mark McCarthy, from the Met Office, added it was a particularly wet year across parts of central and northern England.

Rescuers using a boat to get around Rotherham

Rescuers used boats to reach people trapped in Rotherham as days of persistent rain led to almost 50 flood warnings across England in November 2019

He said: "It’s worth noting that since 2009 the UK has now had its wettest February, April, June, November and December on record – five out of 12 months."

Graphic from UK Met Office.



Saturday, 25 July 2020

Climate Change - Greenland

The invention of the name "Greenland" may mark the start of the advertising industry.

The Saga of the Greenlanders tells how Erik the Red, the Icelandic Viking who wanted to get people to join his planned settlement, called it Greenland because a pleasant name would attract more settlers:

He called the land which he had found Greenland, because, quoth he, "people will be attracted thither, if the land has a good name." 

The ice sheet on Greenland covers most of this huge island.



Greenland is losing ice, and the mass of ice lost is measured by satellites called GRACE.

Embedded image permalink

A survey of Greenland's glaciers has shown they are speeding up.

The speed has increased by about 30% in 10 years.

A paper published in June 2019 predicts that Greenland will very likely become ice free within a millennium without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

A new NASA project called Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) will observe changing water temperatures on the continental shelf surrounding Greenland, and how marine glaciers react to the presence of warm, salty Atlantic water.

Updates about Greenland's ice sheet are regularly posted by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Thursday, 23 July 2020

Climate Change - The End-Permian Mass Extinction

Five major mass extinction events are recorded in the rock record of the last 600 million years.
The biggest extinction was at the end of the Permian, around 252 million years ago.

It is called the End-Permian mass extinction.


Only about 8% of species survived to live on in the Triassic Period.



The event played out over 60,000 years.
Acidification of the oceans lasted for about 10,000 years.
Two separate pulses of CO2 into the atmosphere - a "one-two punch" - may have been involved in the die-off, according to new research.
CO2 was released by massive volcanism from the Siberian Traps, now represented as a large region of volcanic rock. 

A large amount of coal had been burned over a period of tens of thousands of years.
The coal was burned by the Siberian Traps volcanic activity.
The burning actually happened underground, with the carbon dioxide and ash mixing with magma.

This produced vast amounts of CO2 which warmed the Earth and changed the chemistry of the oceans.
The research team, led by Dr Matthew Clarkson from the University of Edinburgh, examined rocks in the United Arab Emirates. 
Siberian Traps
The rocks, which were on the ocean floor at the time, preserve a detailed record of changing oceanic conditions. 

The carbon was released at a similar rate to modern emissions. 
Dr Clarkson says "Scientists have long suspected that an ocean acidification event occurred during the greatest mass extinction of all time, but direct evidence has been lacking until now.
"This is a worrying finding, considering that we can already see an increase in ocean acidity today that is the result of human carbon emissions."

Wednesday, 22 July 2020

Climate Change - El Nino

El Niño is an oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific, and has important consequences for weather around the world.

El Niño happens every three to seven years.

“El Niño” is Spanish for “The Little Boy”.

Peruvian fishermen named the event many years ago.

They noticed that every few years around Christmas, virtually no fish could be found in the unusually warm waters. 
El Niño is marked by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.

The opposite conditions are called La Nina (The Little Girl), characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. 

El Nino clearly affects global temperatures.

One piece of evidence that world temperatures are rising is that every La Nina ‘year’ since 1998 was warmer than every El Nino ‘year’ before 1995:  

As the Earth warms, each El Nino 'rides' on a higher base-line global temperature:

The record-breaking temperatures of 2015 were partly boosted by an El Nino event ... but 2015 would have been the warmest year in the modern record even if there had been no El Nino.

Information about El Nino is provided in bulletins produced by the US National Weather Service and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Tuesday, 21 July 2020

Climate Change - The Experts

What do scientists who research climate change say?

Professor Tim Palmer FRS, Royal Society Research Professor in Climate Physics, University of Oxford:



“The threat of dangerous man-made changes to global climate is quite unequivocal. 
It follows that if we want to reduce this threat, we must cut our emissions of greenhouse gases."

Professor John Shepherd FRS, Ocean & Earth Science, University of Southampton:


“The evidence is very clear that the world is warming, and that human activities are the main cause. 
Natural changes and fluctuations do occur but they are relatively small."

Professor Joanna Haigh CBE FRS, Professor of Atmospheric Physics, Imperial College London:



The concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere now exceeds anything it has experienced in the past 3 million years and its continuing upward trend is almost certain to result in further global warming."

Professor Sir Brian Hoskins FRS, Director of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London:




“The evidence of changes in many different aspects of the climate system, from the ice sheets to the deep ocean, shows that climate change is happening.   
To reduce the serious risks posed by increasing changes in the climate, we need to redouble our efforts globally to limit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions.”

The Royal Society has also published a "Short Guide to Climate Change" 

In addition, the Royal Society has produced a 2017 update on recent research -

"What have we learnt since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report?"

Another organisation offering an important document is the Geological Society of London.

                                 
The Geological Society of London say -

This rate of increase of CO2 is unprecedented.....

even in comparison with the massive injection of carbon into the atmosphere 55 million years ago that led to the major PETM warming event....

and is likely to lead to a similar rise in both temperature and sea level. 

From.....

Monday, 20 July 2020

Climate Change - 1816 - The Year Without a Summer

The climate can react to sudden shocks.

The weather in 1816 was very strange. 

Spring arrived, but then everything seemed to turn backward, as cold temperatures returned. 

The sky seemed permanently overcast. 


The lack of sunlight became so severe that farmers lost their crops.

Food shortages were reported in Ireland, France, England, and the United States.

1816 became known as "The Year without a Summer" or "18-hundred-and-frozen-to-death".

It was over 100 years before anyone understood the reason for this weather disaster.

The eruption of an enormous volcano on a remote island in the Indian Ocean a year earlier had thrown enormous amounts of volcanic ash into the upper atmosphere.

The dust from Mount Tambora, which had erupted in early April 1815, had shrouded the globe. 

With sunlight blocked, 1816 did not have a normal summer.

In Switzerland, the dismal summer of 1816 led to the writing of a famous story. 

A group of writers, including Lord Byron, Percy Bysshe Shelley, and his future wife Mary, challenged each other to write dark tales, inspired by the gloomy and chilly weather.

During the miserable weather Mary Shelley wrote her classic novel Frankenstein.


This event was not unique.

Volcanic events can cool the Earth for a few years.

The large eruption of Mount Pinatubo caused a dip in global temperatures in the early 1990s:

Mount Pinatubo 1991

In 1258 there was a European famine across many countries, and this is now linked to a major eruption in 1257 on Lombok in Indonesia - it has a much bigger sulphate peak in the ice cores than Tambora, so it was a bigger eruption.

In 536 AD a mysterious fog plunged Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Asia into darkness, day and night—for 18 months.

An analysis of ice from a Swiss glacier by a team at the Climate Change Institute of The University of Maine (UM) in Orono has reported that a cataclysmic volcanic eruption in Iceland spewed ash across the Northern Hemisphere early in 536. 

Two other massive eruptions followed, in 540 and 547. The repeated blows, followed by plague, plunged Europe into economic stagnation that lasted until 640.

Temperatures in the summer of 536 fell 1.5°C to 2.5°C, initiating the coldest decade in the past 2300 years. Snow fell that summer in China; crops failed; people starved. The Irish chronicles record "a failure of bread from the years 536–539." 

Sunday, 19 July 2020

Climate Change - Ocean acidification - what does it mean?

The phrase 'ocean acidification' means that the pH of seawater is falling.

The pH scale is used by scientists to describe strength of acids and alkalis. 

Sea water normally had a pH around 8.2 

It has now reduced to 8.1, and will continue to reduce, as more CO2 is added to the air by human activities.

Some of the extra COin the air dissolves in the sea, and this affects sealife.

Here is what one expert scientist has said about this -

"A drop of 0.1-unit pH is equivalent to about a 26% increase in the ocean hydrogen ion concentration.
"pH is likely to drop by 0.3-0.4 units by the end of the 21st century. 
"This will increase ocean hydrogen ion concentration (or acidity) by 100-150% above what it was in pre-industrial times."



Humanity's greenhouse gas emissions may be acidifying the oceans at a faster rate than at any time in the last 300 million years. 

With ocean acidification, corals cannot absorb the calcium carbonate they need to maintain their skeletons.

The stony skeletons that support corals and reefs will dissolve.


The left-hand picture shows healthy coral.    The right-hand picture shows dead and dying coral.


Geoengineering and Coral Farming are now being tested to ...

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting research on ocean acidification in the Arctic, Gulf of Mexico and Florida estuaries, and the Caribbean and Pacific.