tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-58753544562046142172024-03-14T02:41:38.848+00:00ROCKY REX'S SCIENCE BITESThe Time-Warped TyrannosaurUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2234125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-26768365568344146692023-06-15T07:36:00.002+01:002023-06-15T07:36:27.953+01:00Some key climate science concepts, with links. <div class="xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs" style="background-color: #f0f2f5; color: #050505; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">In science correlation + mechanism = evidence of a causative relationship</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s" style="background-color: #f0f2f5; color: #050505; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">Is there a correlation between CO2 levels and global temperatures?</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">Here is a 500 million year correlation</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s" style="background-color: #f0f2f5; color: #050505; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1fey0fg" href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.springernature.com%2Flw685%2Fspringer-static%2Fimage%2Fchp%253A10.1007%252F978-3-319-46939-3_1%2FMediaObjects%2F426313_1_En_1_Fig1_HTML.gif%3Fas%3Dwebp%26fbclid%3DIwAR3EKgoHI5lWxba88vNqbXPfIcqplQdfxkyd9S0irV3qPBxixR_L0IaFMh0&h=AT2B2kvFYammhGDexWKmAtwfzextmKWwvN239U-vZQrzduAhYLu3KiZhpEYc1z5jWjcvi-1L4DezHxnU2ZxnFSjhW3JUIfcQzP3xhIqbaQ4IMwCOBV8Igbv5tytBQY5NOg&__tn__=R]-R&c[0]=AT0zrrYkX_NJWTtQ-M9divbd6vhK4H9Q0tlMXeKMaI-yDaxPqy0q9XpGk6U9zIebfRoeAS-0TWdtpZWYmH5Z5RqX711uHbwyIb4b35eChAaOa82flgTW_MuRoZZzY7fqIzdyE3_Anp9glFRbZmysvGwN5I-jVAt7UlS0a-yNvwrCNaV93hMOWYvvpdHZooEr-HoqZCxFBc0hzoRQX3KB" rel="nofollow noreferrer" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0" target="_blank">https://media.springernature.com/.../426313_1_En_1_Fig1...</a></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s" style="background-color: #f0f2f5; color: #050505; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">Is there a correlation between anthropogenic CO2 and global temperatures. Here is a 250 year correlation between the two.</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s" style="background-color: #f0f2f5; color: #050505; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1fey0fg" href="http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/results-plot-volcanoes.jpg?fbclid=IwAR1IZzzUMVHs1iRziI6-P0mLkFsVNJVclko6pL4PZygFyfJ9CaLcd20q3ac" rel="nofollow noreferrer" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0" target="_blank">http://berkeleyearth.org/.../03/results-plot-volcanoes.jpg</a></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s" style="background-color: #f0f2f5; color: #050505; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">What is the mechanism for CO2 a a greenhouse gas? That mechanism has been known for 2 centuries.</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s" style="background-color: #f0f2f5; color: #050505; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1fey0fg" href="https://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR1ExsFozmT1eK77kQp8iINqtJEcivHuSBbNxaz9lWv_ILr7QGZQB7NC8iM" rel="nofollow noreferrer" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0" target="_blank">https://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm</a></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s" style="background-color: #f0f2f5; color: #050505; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">Here is an explanation of the mechanism of the "greenhouse effect".</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1fey0fg" href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fprojects.iq.harvard.edu%2Ffiles%2Facmg%2Ffiles%2Fintro_atmo_chem_bookchap7.pdf%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR3uJ4gyba1DYmhAo-OLE5ZiSgA9Y3zpq2hERlRbjCDNHYWR4BHTg8YHga0&h=AT3sNwVmk1EOLiBT7ftIzd7aFA1zXObxlYU7xMFYotR-Q7WektamY_cRtFflwU0DEjLtrlwls0ZlxogxxGEm9_MAqJbM72CPRCmm5ag_68gFRrjZpT1S6blqwYl901z1gQ&__tn__=R]-R&c[0]=AT0zrrYkX_NJWTtQ-M9divbd6vhK4H9Q0tlMXeKMaI-yDaxPqy0q9XpGk6U9zIebfRoeAS-0TWdtpZWYmH5Z5RqX711uHbwyIb4b35eChAaOa82flgTW_MuRoZZzY7fqIzdyE3_Anp9glFRbZmysvGwN5I-jVAt7UlS0a-yNvwrCNaV93hMOWYvvpdHZooEr-HoqZCxFBc0hzoRQX3KB" rel="nofollow noreferrer" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0" target="_blank">https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/.../intro_atmo_chem...</a></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s" style="background-color: #f0f2f5; color: #050505; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">How do we know the increase in CO2 is anthropogenic? Carbon isotope analysis of the ratios of C14, C13 and C12 traces the 50% increase in CO2 since the mid 18th century to the burning of fossil fuels</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s" style="background-color: #f0f2f5; color: #050505; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1fey0fg" href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/how-do-we-know-build-carbon-dioxide-atmosphere-caused-humans?fbclid=IwAR2x5AKoR32-3-8umsv-tpxp-HQPG3AjLA6VNe_n6IyaHt-VvCEthNRE4Ys" rel="nofollow noreferrer" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0" target="_blank">https://www.climate.gov/.../how-do-we-know-build-carbon...</a></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s" style="background-color: #f0f2f5; color: #050505; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">What about natural forcings? Natural forcings would have us cooling.</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s" style="background-color: #f0f2f5; color: #050505; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">Milankovitch cycles.</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s" style="background-color: #f0f2f5; color: #050505; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1fey0fg" href="https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2949/why-milankovitch-orbital-cycles-cant-explain-earths-current-warming/?fbclid=IwAR2RD96ON9Lmo16kR8KKvPq3JfSVaaw_P6KV-ruspPJ7axoceOENyZ07RrQ" rel="nofollow noreferrer" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0" target="_blank">https://climate.nasa.gov/.../why-milankovitch-orbital.../</a></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s" style="background-color: #f0f2f5; color: #050505; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">Solar cycles</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s" style="background-color: #f0f2f5; color: #050505; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1fey0fg" href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/?fbclid=IwAR2eZdd0wRftTnedQ2jONZkDHt08tll6DsMMzcLb4pw7DWUTVl5wZ541a5s" rel="nofollow noreferrer" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0" target="_blank">https://climate.nasa.gov/.../is-the-sun-causing-global.../</a></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">From Jack Dale https://www.facebook.com/groups/453353528124367/posts/6073992532727077/?comment_id=6074277412698589</div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-86230777623857912182023-03-24T12:53:00.002+00:002023-03-28T21:54:02.328+01:00CLIMATE WATCH - Arctic Sea Ice<p> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqV-bQG7eptZmT228eHIbTCdw4yZzShn6s3BmVy4RjJZVdDlLBQJIhMRpzv_MpvNHqi4-W-ovj5Bboe4X8Q_mahPkROMm6H2skxbCFVR8eve3zALeG5gi7od0qOL833TkyKSoeG6FvMJSleLSB-kt17Il8gKvzyIV8ueAyyTaOAGMmthFCcor_E8bU/s1050/N_iqr_timeseries%20(4).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="840" data-original-width="1050" height="459" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqV-bQG7eptZmT228eHIbTCdw4yZzShn6s3BmVy4RjJZVdDlLBQJIhMRpzv_MpvNHqi4-W-ovj5Bboe4X8Q_mahPkROMm6H2skxbCFVR8eve3zALeG5gi7od0qOL833TkyKSoeG6FvMJSleLSB-kt17Il8gKvzyIV8ueAyyTaOAGMmthFCcor_E8bU/w636-h459/N_iqr_timeseries%20(4).png" width="636" /></a></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">From <a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/">https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/</a></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Arctic sea ice area changes with the seasons, but there is a long-term decline*, caused by global warming.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Most scientific sources suggest there might be a few days of "ice-free" conditions in the Arctic Ocean one summer around mid-century. Ice-free sea (being darker) absorbs heat, while ice reflects heat.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Progressively over time, more "ice-free" days are likely, on average. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">But what exactly does an "ice-free Arctic Ocean" mean?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">For measurement purposes, researchers divide the ocean up into small cells.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The data cells are 25 km by 25 km.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">If there is more than 15% ice on a cell, it counts as an "ice-covered" cell.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">If there is less than 15% ice on a cell, it counts as "ice-free".</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">At some time, the Arctic Ocean one September will meet the 'ice-free' criterion - each cell will be counted as ice-free as long as there is less than 15% ice in the cell.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">But an 'ice-free' Arctic Ocean will still have some areas with up to 15% ice cover.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(15% or less may have been chosen as "ice-free" at some point because at that concentration you can pass through without an icebreaker - over 15% you need a ship set up as an icebreaker)</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">It's worth noting that cells with as little as 16% ice are counted as 'ice-covered' in this system.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">*Arctic sea ice graph for the last 1450 years:</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjOo864gTxgw0KkOBkTC5nTax9xd6setFM-wgtVVrtg7Yr8CHIZ9fvPX0lh1bYKHCyNtEwDyiu3aJzscAQ2iZ9yiA_V7B4_szPNZ8XzMlRmhPQxu8n7imk0WcVpWKiY8-jVlF3b-o8Vx2zQeP5AIqp7kKzDIhxUKjSBeZxkFzQRI8krW0gTfUeiQCmV" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="650" height="431" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjOo864gTxgw0KkOBkTC5nTax9xd6setFM-wgtVVrtg7Yr8CHIZ9fvPX0lh1bYKHCyNtEwDyiu3aJzscAQ2iZ9yiA_V7B4_szPNZ8XzMlRmhPQxu8n7imk0WcVpWKiY8-jVlF3b-o8Vx2zQeP5AIqp7kKzDIhxUKjSBeZxkFzQRI8krW0gTfUeiQCmV=w539-h431" width="539" /></a> </div><br /><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">The graph was produced from data in this paper - Kinnard et al, 2011....</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v479/n7374/full/nature10581.html" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #052962; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out 0s;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v479/n7374/full/nature10581.html</span></a></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-24357478152069231822023-03-20T13:59:00.028+00:002023-03-20T19:25:04.993+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - The IPCC Synthesis Report (2023, AR6)<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><b>Useful graphics</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh55CykWZJF6gFCgOijNGno8j99b9pWyDELXzWbjKDqCJB_HntfU9rxv9_Lo1LiwetANOe3e1fIv6flpW203mJO11kCVSZlRXpcRUeRO5W4sPcQiGNso5kqeADc1ZYzdBWuktDAcf2wBedlX0k-7wagJwyRHDjH6SLCMUfQ-ayHdBP8dqWkxEpdieO6" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1300" data-original-width="1575" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh55CykWZJF6gFCgOijNGno8j99b9pWyDELXzWbjKDqCJB_HntfU9rxv9_Lo1LiwetANOe3e1fIv6flpW203mJO11kCVSZlRXpcRUeRO5W4sPcQiGNso5kqeADc1ZYzdBWuktDAcf2wBedlX0k-7wagJwyRHDjH6SLCMUfQ-ayHdBP8dqWkxEpdieO6=w507-h394" width="507" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhbl0j5WHDyWIJqCj-UiJFcxZ3i-7eduqdihAzM-ZSLIEPEm8fPVFzaJem6lyQ6nWqz534cX72G4rt668aGFZjMXvHO5dbB7L9AcgnlEYV5nFXqj0a977xx9bE8L17a3KXEfynJBqK7Biav5ViQy4-rOjZST8VD0o-VWXpau3Bi5flqCIdHI4AegEGv" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2100" data-original-width="1575" height="493" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhbl0j5WHDyWIJqCj-UiJFcxZ3i-7eduqdihAzM-ZSLIEPEm8fPVFzaJem6lyQ6nWqz534cX72G4rt668aGFZjMXvHO5dbB7L9AcgnlEYV5nFXqj0a977xx9bE8L17a3KXEfynJBqK7Biav5ViQy4-rOjZST8VD0o-VWXpau3Bi5flqCIdHI4AegEGv=w519-h493" width="519" /></a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhchnbeGVCr1HMGCf-mFXIsFY0AW8jYGrARkPRo3WGfbsyY2xi_eXIKikusA3uhNQaPN_o_pahn2yrtJZZ5_U3XissHsZST8HkgmKnurdXsHcgXATsoP84kQNas2vtyEHI7o4gtjoTgUc_zubjfoxhfvFbmm1v-aAaRUnwHOXQw6_B1LicX-mzWTjKV" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1738" height="321" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhchnbeGVCr1HMGCf-mFXIsFY0AW8jYGrARkPRo3WGfbsyY2xi_eXIKikusA3uhNQaPN_o_pahn2yrtJZZ5_U3XissHsZST8HkgmKnurdXsHcgXATsoP84kQNas2vtyEHI7o4gtjoTgUc_zubjfoxhfvFbmm1v-aAaRUnwHOXQw6_B1LicX-mzWTjKV=w634-h321" width="634" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiq1Zrg31Pw9NoUS8bUn_dObExt3ivAOdt8Z7mS1gv7BtoAgaDNs1hP5r94rXlc1893INuP9OtMUHvWIMdgyfmUUgNYqNzXE7syag-Th3DWS_FWlOp2FWc-AqSdLjo3z6LcTlDG3b_A5jeICDDcsem7Ub5WCO6E8kFoHdlVoJKm1_OlsAvhhr-FLZrP" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1400" data-original-width="1575" height="359" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiq1Zrg31Pw9NoUS8bUn_dObExt3ivAOdt8Z7mS1gv7BtoAgaDNs1hP5r94rXlc1893INuP9OtMUHvWIMdgyfmUUgNYqNzXE7syag-Th3DWS_FWlOp2FWc-AqSdLjo3z6LcTlDG3b_A5jeICDDcsem7Ub5WCO6E8kFoHdlVoJKm1_OlsAvhhr-FLZrP=w478-h359" width="478" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">From the following source, where there is plenty of additional material:</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/2023-ipcc-ar6-synthesis-report-climate-change-findings"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">https://www.wri.org/insights/2023-ipcc-ar6-synthesis-report-climate-change-findings</span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Also: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/20/humanity-at-climate-crossroads-highway-to-hell-or-a-livable-future">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/20/humanity-at-climate-crossroads-highway-to-hell-or-a-livable-future</a></span></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><b>IPCC links..... </b></span><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(1) Press Release:</span><div><p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/press/IPCC_AR6_SYR_PressRelease_en.pdf"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/press/IPCC_AR6_SYR_PressRelease_en.pdf</span></a></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(2) Headline Statements:</span></p><p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/resources/spm-headline-statements"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/resources/spm-headline-statements</span></a><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(3) Slide-show:</span></p><p><a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SlideDeck.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1FD9sBJGgFBiDgC_ioAoM2t8qGqj4XktnYP4nwMY1IlLVNfGrxHPrF5Qw"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SlideDeck.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1FD9sBJGgFBiDgC_ioAoM2t8qGqj4XktnYP4nwMY1IlLVNfGrxHPrF5Qw</span></a><br /></p></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-48552730747349498032023-03-19T12:32:00.007+00:002023-03-19T12:36:11.519+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - An Outline of the History of Climate Science<div style="background-color: white;"><b><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">1800-1870 </span></b></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b><br /></b>Level of carbon dioxide gas (CO<span>2</span>) in the atmosphere, as later measured in <b>ancient ice</b>, was about 290 ppm (parts per million).</span><br /><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><br /><img src="http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/law_dome_1000yr.jpg" /></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Global temperature for 1850-1870 was about 13.6°C.</span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><strong><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">1824</span></strong></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><a href="http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/2013/05/16/why-we-know-about-the-greenhouse-gas-effect/" target="_blank"><b><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span style="line-height: 14.56px;"><span style="color: blue;">Jean-Baptiste Joseph F</span></span></span></b><b><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span style="color: blue;">ourier</span></span></b></a><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"> calculated that the Earth would be far colder if it lacked an atmosphere. </span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8d5wmv98N93KgtKVaYEc4G9FtlOGhhavMMvfdorT8Gg1BFga0xLehpB1Sbt60azUqHL4_0kQxQ3CAmqk-dTC7Kt-mB9hzAon3gNg1BUw95ucskhhKzQ-hbBn4G7noieT5Fjw3X-zp70mRqgH-E4805sFhRnwpbPzFFa-_K9LYycLTpC9E1LHBe_Kg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="734" data-original-width="875" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8d5wmv98N93KgtKVaYEc4G9FtlOGhhavMMvfdorT8Gg1BFga0xLehpB1Sbt60azUqHL4_0kQxQ3CAmqk-dTC7Kt-mB9hzAon3gNg1BUw95ucskhhKzQ-hbBn4G7noieT5Fjw3X-zp70mRqgH-E4805sFhRnwpbPzFFa-_K9LYycLTpC9E1LHBe_Kg=w489-h338" width="489" /></a></div><br /><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><br /></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><strong>1856</strong></span><br /><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><strong><br /></strong></span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><strong><a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/09/02/the-woman-who-identified-the-greenhouse-effect-years-before-tyndall/"><span style="color: blue;">Eunice Foote</span></a> </strong></span><span style="color: #333333; line-height: 25.7143px;">describes filling glass jars with water vapour, carbon dioxide and air, and comparing how much they heated up in the sun.</span><br /></span><blockquote class="tr_bq" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; line-height: 25.7143px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">“The highest effect of the sun’s rays I have found to be in carbonic acid gas,” </span></blockquote><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"> <span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="color: #333333; line-height: 25.7143px;">“The receiver containing the gas became itself much heated – very sensibly more so than the other – and on being removed, it was many times as long in cooling.”</span></span></blockquote><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><strong>1859</strong><br /><b>John Tyndall</b> discovered that some gases block infra-red radiation. </span><br /><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><br /></span><img src="http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/evidence_greenhouse.jpg" /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">He suggested that <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15093234" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;"><b>changes in the concentration of the gases</b></span></a> could bring <b>climate change</b>.</span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><b><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="T018"></a>1896 </b><br /><a href="http://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;"><b>Arrhenius</b> published the first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO<span>2</span>.</span></a></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><br /></span></span><b><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">1930s </span></b></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b><span style="color: blue;">Milutin Milankovitch</span></b> proposed orbital changes as the cause of ice ages. </span><br /><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><br /></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><img src="http://image.slidesharecdn.com/milankovitchtheory-141215232032-conversion-gate02/95/milankovitch-theory-27-638.jpg?cb=1418685680" /></span><br /><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>1938 </b><br /><b>Guy Callendar </b>showed that <span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-22283372" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">global warming was underwa</span></a>y,</span> reviving interest in the question. </span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><br /></span><img src="https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/1a/3c/60/1a3c60793a9e969740c7ee762abe9a53.jpg" /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>1958 </b><br />Telescope studies showed a greenhouse effect raises temperature of the <a href="http://www.universetoday.com/22577/venus-greenhouse-effect/" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">atmosphere of <b>Venus</b></span></a><b> </b>far above the boiling point of water. </span><br /><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><img src="http://www.daviddarling.info/images/Venus_atmosphere.jpg" /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b><br /></b></span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>1960 </b><br /><br /><a href="http://www.aip.org/history/climate/Venus.htm#L_M030"></a></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Charles David Keeling</span></a></b> accurately measured CO<span>2</span> in the Earth's atmosphere.</span><br /><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><br /></span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">He was not expecting to detect an annual rise.</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The CO<span>2</span> level was 315 parts per million (ppm)and global temperature (five-year average) was 13.9°C.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">Keeling's <span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">measurements have been continued.</span></a></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><br /></span></span></div><div><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Climate research comes from geology, geophysics, geochemistry, palaeontology, oceanography, atmospheric physics, meteorology, glaciology, etc etc etc. Hundreds of thousands of scientific papers, over decade after decade, since the 19th century. It's not some fringe thing from a handful of scientists.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Climate science is probably one of the most thoroughly scrutinised fields of science ever - on top of the peer review process for each paper it has something that has never existed in any area of science before - the IPCC process. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The current scientific understanding of climate change (as summarised in IPCC reports) is accepted by every professional association of scientists on Earth - in every field of science. Over 200 academies, including chemists, physicists, geologists, etc etc.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Those associations represent the global scientific community of around 8 million research scientists. </span></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-25785316900080302762023-03-16T14:53:00.000+00:002023-03-16T14:53:32.938+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - 1816 - The Year Without A Summer<div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #191919; display: inline; line-height: 23px; margin-bottom: 17px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">The climate can react to sudden shocks.</span><br /><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><br /></span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">The weather in <b>1816</b> was very strange. </span></span></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">Spring arrived, but then everything seemed to turn backward, as cold temperatures returned. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">The sky seemed permanently overcast. </span><div><div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #191919; display: inline; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 23px; margin-bottom: 17px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></div></div><div><div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #191919; display: inline; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 23px; margin-bottom: 17px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">T</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">he lack of sunlight became so </span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">severe that farmers lost their crops. </span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">Food shortages were reported in Ireland, France, England, and the United States.</span></div><div><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: verdana; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhGLPiwn3bOQx1pi-SQ1kdi_PSf0TwP_7-ncE4KzG5-r1-okTX-Z2L-v-DbSlM3PHiUcCMuxLI0De2NRHnBPggeUCRyE3eP3QA8fGZlE9L941oH2f0kJNHM9qLQLP9vrxf_tK09Y6HD_L6ehbE8VdZ42pPpLGQXSRfjEolJ61c5RZ7QMOBz905oTm0T" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="759" data-original-width="1024" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhGLPiwn3bOQx1pi-SQ1kdi_PSf0TwP_7-ncE4KzG5-r1-okTX-Z2L-v-DbSlM3PHiUcCMuxLI0De2NRHnBPggeUCRyE3eP3QA8fGZlE9L941oH2f0kJNHM9qLQLP9vrxf_tK09Y6HD_L6ehbE8VdZ42pPpLGQXSRfjEolJ61c5RZ7QMOBz905oTm0T=w405-h316" width="405" /></a></div><br /><br /><div><div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #191919; display: inline; line-height: 23px; margin-bottom: 17px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><br /></span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">1816 became known as <a href="http://history1800s.about.com/od/crimesanddisasters/a/The-Year-Without-A-Summer.htm" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">"The Year without a Summer"</span></a> or "18-hundred-and-frozen-to-death".</span></span></div></div><div><div class="cb-split" style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #191919; display: inline; line-height: 23px; margin-bottom: 17px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div></div><div><div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #191919; display: inline; line-height: 23px; margin-bottom: 17px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">It was over 100 years before anyone understood the reason for this weather disaster. </span></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">The eruption of an enormous volcano on a remote island in the Indian Ocean a year earlier had </span><a href="http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/cp-2016-78/" style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana; font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue;">thrown enormous amounts of volcanic ash</span></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: verdana; font-size: large;"> into the upper atmosphere.</span></div><div><div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #191919; display: inline; line-height: 23px; margin-bottom: 17px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div></div><div><div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; line-height: 23px; margin-bottom: 17px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #191919;">The dust from </span><span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/tambora.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;"><b>Mount Tambora</b></span></a></span><span style="color: #191919;">, which had erupted in early April 1815, had shrouded the globe. </span></span></div></div><div><div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #191919; display: inline; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 23px; margin-bottom: 17px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="353" src="https://wfoster2011.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/snagit128.jpg" width="640" /></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; line-height: 23px; margin-bottom: 17px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">With sunlight blocked, 1816 did not have a normal summer. </span></div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">In Switzerland, the dismal summer of 1816 led to the writing of a famous story. </span></div><div><div><div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; line-height: 23px; margin-bottom: 17px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div></div><div><div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; line-height: 23px; margin-bottom: 17px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">A group of writers, including Lord Byron, Percy Bysshe Shelley, and his future wife Mary, challenged each other to write dark tales, inspired by the gloomy and chilly weather. </span></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">During the miserable weather</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: verdana; font-size: large;"> </span><a data-component="link" data-inlink="iVMpOowILbOtASf589H5Vw==" data-ordinal="4" data-source="inlineLink" data-type="internalLink" href="http://classiclit.about.com/cs/profileswriters/p/aa_mshelley.htm" style="background-color: white; background-position: 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: verdana; font-size: large; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: blue;"><b>Mary Shelley</b></span></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: verdana; font-size: large;"> wrote her classic novel </span><em style="background-color: white; background-position: 0px 0px; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #191919; font-family: verdana; font-size: large; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Frankenstein</b></em><span style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">.</span></div><div><div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; line-height: 23px; margin-bottom: 17px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span style="color: #191919;"><br /></span></span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span style="color: #191919;">This event was not unique.</span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span style="color: #191919;"><br /></span></span><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150708133858.htm" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">A new study has found that 15 of the 16 coldest summers recorded between 500 B.C. and A.D. 1,000 followed large volcanic eruptions.</span></a></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><br /></span></span><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">Volcanic events can cool the Earth for a few years.</span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><br /></span></span><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">The large eruption of <a href="http://www.philippines.hvu.nl/volcanoes2.htm" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Mount Pinatubo</span></a> caused a dip in global temperatures in the early 1990s:</span></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><img height="426" src="https://simpleclimate.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/pinatubo91_eruption_plume_06-12-91.jpg" width="640" /></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.512px;">Mount Pinatubo 1991</span></div><div style="font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">In the year 1258, there was a European famine across many countries, and this is now linked to a major eruption in 1257 on Lombok in Indonesia - it has a much bigger<span style="color: #333333;"> </span><a href="http://www.chem.hope.edu/~polik/warming/IceCore/IceCore2.html"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="color: blue;">sulphate peak in the ice cores</span></span></a><span style="color: #333333;"> </span>than Tambora, so it was a bigger eruption.</span></span><br /><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><br /></span></span><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span style="color: #333333;">In the year 536 , a mysterious fog plunged Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Asia into darkness, day and night—for 18 months. Summer temperatures dropped 1.5°C to 2.5°C, initiating the coldest decade in the past 2300 years. Snow fell that summer in China; crops failed; people starved. </span></span></span><br /><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span><span style="color: #333333;">Now, after analyzing volcanic glass particles in ice from a Swiss glacier, </span><a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/11/why-536-was-worst-year-be-alive"><span style="color: blue;">a team of researchers has identified the culprit</span></a><span style="color: #333333;">: A cataclysmic volcano in Iceland spewed ash across the Northern Hemisphere early in 536.</span></span></span></span><br /><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="color: #333333;">Researchers have investigated <a href="https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3394.html"><span style="color: blue;">how future volcanic eruptions</span></a> might affect the current trend of global warming.</span></span></span><br /><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">They produced this graph showing that even a period of very active vulcanism would not affect the long-term trend -</span></span></span></span><br /><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></span></span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span style="color: #333333;"><img height="358" src="http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/climate-lab-book/files/2017/10/bethke_schematic.png" width="640" /></span></span></span><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: xx-small;">The red curve shows how the temperature evolves from year to year in a simulation without volcanic activity. The blue curve shows the result for the simulation of the study with largest volcanic activity.</span></span></span></div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="color: #220e10; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium; text-align: left;">This new research shows that strong volcanic eruptions would produce short periods of cooling, that would generally be followed by periods of accelerated warming, as the effects of the volcanic emissions subside, and the effects of CO2 emissions catch up. </span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-17532444330977471832023-03-14T22:43:00.010+00:002023-03-14T22:49:05.590+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - Carbon Burps in the Geological Record<p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><b>"Carbon Burps" </b>?? What are Carbon Burps?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">They are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22298-7">sudden releases of carbon from ancient rocks.</a></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">They show up in the geological record as <a href="https://research.birmingham.ac.uk/en/publications/negative-carbon-isotope-excursions-an-interpretive-framework">changes in geochemistry</a> (so they are found by using fairly complex laboratory tests on rocks)</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">They are associated with extinction events, but the scale of extinction varies a lot.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiGP8r6o23KdaPtaDXE_5-h_NOUDSDG6194s6JGYWss0HW-7R8uLEeAIC4pyGKLNakB9Z78NFMYxJemk5zMAxPqmgBw4PWTZeRJ3rdTY2BWXtrpBWSBVUV76dMB_eeWJ_UtEcMHaqpN0gTjc1VpIPA5PqHWhlsy3UyRue36o8p3ZnGuA6hw5c_QzLsk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="789" data-original-width="1440" height="269" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiGP8r6o23KdaPtaDXE_5-h_NOUDSDG6194s6JGYWss0HW-7R8uLEeAIC4pyGKLNakB9Z78NFMYxJemk5zMAxPqmgBw4PWTZeRJ3rdTY2BWXtrpBWSBVUV76dMB_eeWJ_UtEcMHaqpN0gTjc1VpIPA5PqHWhlsy3UyRue36o8p3ZnGuA6hw5c_QzLsk=w521-h269" width="521" /></a></div><br /><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The most extreme geological example of events like this is the <b><a href="https://samnoblemuseum.ou.edu/understanding-extinction/mass-extinctions/end-permian-extinction/">end-Permian</a></b>, when igneous activity broke through coal seams in Siberia.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The interaction of hot magma and coal produced lots of CO2.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The end-Permian event reduced oceanic biodiversity by about 92%.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Recovery of biodiversity took about 10 million years - the fossil record from the next part of geological time, the early Triassic, is very thin.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Messing with planetary systems isn't wise.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">One event with possibly closer similarities to what we are doing was about 56 million years ago, the <b>Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum</b>.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The PETM mechanism (according to some good research) involved volcanic action breaking through carbon-rich sedimentary deposits.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">This was related to the rifting that produced the North Atlantic, and we see some of the results of that volcanic activity in eg the Giant's Causeway, Arran, Skye, Mull, Ardnamrchan, Rhum.......</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCpCHGMW3V8b28pzHo04X9SX_jk0ZrlQy1DBo-LlrkLrW_DSx2vgLIq3w8do6ghhvVrpMDhpNWEoWRJXMnhlvHTJeNCWQtvFbAJoloYDqJ71RhyrRnGpjZq8JVlbkJVOBPjZ0Xl5pdlMxyqtQJF8cqodYF3NYTTvFk5Z39OvLXpO0DeT_AEhnJVSP2" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="493" data-original-width="1023" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCpCHGMW3V8b28pzHo04X9SX_jk0ZrlQy1DBo-LlrkLrW_DSx2vgLIq3w8do6ghhvVrpMDhpNWEoWRJXMnhlvHTJeNCWQtvFbAJoloYDqJ71RhyrRnGpjZq8JVlbkJVOBPjZ0Xl5pdlMxyqtQJF8cqodYF3NYTTvFk5Z39OvLXpO0DeT_AEhnJVSP2=w565-h286" width="565" /></a></div><br /><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The interaction of hot magma with the sediments produced vast amounts of CO2 - a kind of natural parallel with our activities. But it took many thousands of years.....that's the very dangerous difference this time, the rate of change.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Life will survive, but human societies depend on climatic stability for food supplies - that's the weakest link in all this.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEigUPtXq22pYMTXfU9-y565p1SEHrOI3Jg17DIVUM2Xv64LA1maty6qoWDF3_vO1Rz71PGOtr0VhvhQ0Vzd86p4FAsnIn2K_vwhrVUNgJSRktlGW4ydiJcCMfxeSnKA9UieUeP3C1yJMVCaDNWBNgbVByVGLwhhs3adFqzkODztWrOBxWjp4dB4bvAa" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="418" data-original-width="754" height="337" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEigUPtXq22pYMTXfU9-y565p1SEHrOI3Jg17DIVUM2Xv64LA1maty6qoWDF3_vO1Rz71PGOtr0VhvhQ0Vzd86p4FAsnIn2K_vwhrVUNgJSRktlGW4ydiJcCMfxeSnKA9UieUeP3C1yJMVCaDNWBNgbVByVGLwhhs3adFqzkODztWrOBxWjp4dB4bvAa=w570-h337" width="570" /></a></div><br /><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-family: "Guardian Text Sans Web", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">After the PETM, it took around 20 million years for CO2 levels to fall sufficiently for glaciation to begin in Antarctica, at the Eocene-Oligocene transition.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">The CO2 was mainly taken up by weathering of the newly-rising Himalayas - <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GB005054">when large mountain chains are formed they experience slow chemical weathering and this slowly reduces atmospheric CO2, cooling the Earth.</a></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">CO2 in rain makes a weak acid, which causes the chemical weathering.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Rivers carry the carbon compounds down to the oceans, where various processes (such as the formation of calcareous shells by organisms) eventually deposit the material on the ocean floor.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">This is the long, slow, part of the carbon cycle.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(Scientific source ......<b>"Terrestrial cooling in Northern Europe during the Eocene–Oligocene transition" - Hrena et al, 2013</b>)</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-52269376888100517072023-03-12T15:26:00.002+00:002023-03-13T20:37:35.883+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - The Greenhouse Effect<div class="post-outer" style="border: 0px; padding-bottom: 0.25em; position: relative;"><div class="post" style="margin-top: 0px;"><div class="post-body entry-content float-container" id="post-body-2026600409356559453" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.5em 0px 2em;"><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">What do scientists mean by the "<b>Greenhouse Effect</b>"?<br /><br />When the Sun's energy arrives at the Earth, it travels through the air.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Some is reflected back to space, but some hits the Earth and warms it.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The warm Earth gives off <a href="http://science.hq.nasa.gov/kids/imagers/ems/infrared.html" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">infrared radiation</a> with various wavelengths. </span></div><div style="color: #757575; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br /></span></div><div style="color: #757575; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AHs97-mNL4F4B4w6Azj5gfVDokSjhnZQiEVCVIbGIQVR3fdwHg8FZ863SVfJbOzBvCEqhoqyzWjBVr6ZYPnWhuZ17wNtyAEn4wTG_1-uG2AdayqcYOYtUFnt_DehdiRFivi2GuUodM8RCcD7FFE9mPjMjA=s0-d" style="border: 0px; height: inherit; max-width: 100%;" /></span></div><div style="color: #757575; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Some of those waves can pass back out of the air to space, but some are absorbed by certain gases in the air.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><a href="http://scied.ucar.edu/carbon-dioxide-absorbs-and-re-emits-infrared-radiation" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: black; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The gases then re-emit the energy into the air.</span></a></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">If there are more of those gases, less heat escapes into space.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><a href="http://www.universetoday.com/22577/venus-greenhouse-effect/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: black; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">An extreme case has happened on Venus.</span></a></div><div style="color: #757575; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br /></span></div><div style="color: #757575; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AHs97-lHW0mJ28mEBi8CX4VuNH1IIx9T0jC8g28uKBRJCelwzQnb_XYdsEop7iA-ztOZh3LqEidarf5LCsI9lsrh_FWzEGWn6hab106s-teBkW-Pfx425zqd6kboFZE=s0-d" style="border: 0px; height: inherit; max-width: 100%;" /></span></div><div style="color: #757575; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Concentrated <a href="http://www.epa.gov/climatestudents/basics/today/greenhouse-gases.html" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">'greenhouse gases'</a> on Venus have caused the surface temperature to rise to 735 <a href="http://www.livescience.com/39994-kelvin.html" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Kelvin</a> (462 degrees C; around 900 degrees F)</span><br /><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #757575; font-size: 15px;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgaK3rd0kChqKlPJxnW-80BDlLLisr6Ff9gjclJbajdllrmIx5cO-CYrrwhf-PKYheahjQhOMzd-ahWNYL34pR3U6a0IVPoU7U9pPohU32i6OwuFmPLJZo-YjnfHVLe6JONgwKHXK7TtuD64b-YVjphYQgiiXL8D-GLx_6LPhkpsbozk8uSz2lEMk8R" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="1084" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgaK3rd0kChqKlPJxnW-80BDlLLisr6Ff9gjclJbajdllrmIx5cO-CYrrwhf-PKYheahjQhOMzd-ahWNYL34pR3U6a0IVPoU7U9pPohU32i6OwuFmPLJZo-YjnfHVLe6JONgwKHXK7TtuD64b-YVjphYQgiiXL8D-GLx_6LPhkpsbozk8uSz2lEMk8R=w578-h354" width="578" /></a></div><br /></span><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /><span><a href="http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Trend/acceleration-of-atmospheric-co2.html" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span>Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have risen quickly</span></a> since people began burning large quantities of fossil fuels.</span><br /><span style="color: #757575;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"><div style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">There was carbon dioxide in the air before that, at around 270 parts per million.<br /><br />Without any carbon dioxide, the Earth would be very cold.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br />The temperature would be around -18 degrees C.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br />There have been times when most of the carbon dioxide was trapped in rocks.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br />The Earth cooled into a state called <a href="https://www.princeton.edu/~achaney/tmve/wiki100k/docs/Snowball_Earth.html" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #2196f3; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">'Snowball Earth'</span></a>. </span><br /><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-size: medium;"><br /><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AHs97-nD7ZhQYn8k7mAPP9_tFiaxljWAxKTMRQ1udydf0MF8lgRoWkpsNAHCLpxj1y_Yekxx9g_l1z8z4T8RjfEvLGOWQBhVxdb2wJOEHMXkIxlH0ciBoUlM1P9n25O1MGDYF3Tzp1NSDLAt7p6HdVbqr2EQ-raSr-yejv9kqnZZecGY2SnI9VWZNfHiWus=s0-d" style="border: 0px; height: inherit; max-width: 100%;" /></span><br /><div style="font-family: Tinos; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br /></span></div><div style="font-family: Tinos; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br /></span></div><div><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">This is not new science. The first scientific paper hinting at what we now call the greenhouse effect was published in 1824. Yes, nearly 200 years ago. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">An experiment showing CO2 was a key greenhouse gas was demonstrated at a scientific event by Mrs Eunice Foote in 1856.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Svante Arrhenius published the first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO2 in 1897. He'd started off investigating how changes in CO2 could be connected to ice ages.</span><span style="font-family: "Guardian Text Sans Web", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> </span></p></div></div></div></div><div class="post-bottom" style="-webkit-box-align: center; align-items: center; color: #757575; display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"><div class="post-share-buttons post-share-buttons-bottom" style="float: right; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 16px; position: relative;"><div class="byline post-share-buttons goog-inline-block" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.54); display: inline-block; line-height: 24px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: top; width: 24px;"><div aria-owns="sharing-popup-Blog1-byline-2026600409356559453" class="sharing" data-title="Climate Change - The Greenhouse Effect" style="float: right;"><div class="share-buttons-container"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-82421491310055843052023-03-11T09:32:00.001+00:002023-03-11T09:32:50.906+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - The Long-Term Carbon Cycle<p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The formation of one typical coal seam took perhaps 100,000 years of photosynthesis by the first forests. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjraFjWUw0Xn7bkUQpkbRMM0sUcGS1J8DJMUPGhtmTuePLGtCF3SWR8r4KzJ8H3JoJqjkHlgX3I2prV26UOGklRYeJRRXZtKPTnI-Dpjkr-MWvKrIZjG3bnCyQYU3uozH6xsRxCSoqwtX3XmxyKWcBgU-MOXRPm0RcZXW1MmkbBKfcWJejKK5Oj0WQs" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="546" data-original-width="728" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjraFjWUw0Xn7bkUQpkbRMM0sUcGS1J8DJMUPGhtmTuePLGtCF3SWR8r4KzJ8H3JoJqjkHlgX3I2prV26UOGklRYeJRRXZtKPTnI-Dpjkr-MWvKrIZjG3bnCyQYU3uozH6xsRxCSoqwtX3XmxyKWcBgU-MOXRPm0RcZXW1MmkbBKfcWJejKK5Oj0WQs=w331-h252" width="331" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">So much CO2 was removed from the air by the "coal forests" over millions of years in the Late Carboniferous that it caused an ice age (not the more recent one that most people know about)</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Such an intense ice age that it almost created a "Snowball Earth" around <span style="background-color: #f6f6f6; color: #262626;">300 million years ago:</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1712062114" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #052962; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none !important; touch-action: manipulation; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out 0s;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1712062114</span></a></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Oil and gas were also produced hundreds of millions of years ago, and in their case the CO2 was taken up by tiny marine organisms in the oceans. Also over a huge amount of time.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">What about non-biological processes that remove CO2 from the air? These are also very slow.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">After the PETM warming event around 56 million years ago, it took around 20 million years for CO2 levels to fall sufficiently for glaciation to begin in Antarctica, at the Eocene-Oligocene transition.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The CO2 was mainly taken up by weathering of the newly-rising Himalayas - when large mountain chains are formed they experience slow chemical weathering and this slowly reduces atmospheric CO2, cooling the Earth.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjkM5_D66QEbaJD6CcSgTJJK_jm-HapzFgT-6wBNtfEx0K4E5hUD7esG2eIjXp6J2BT4mugqwX2kdAa4FeQRBUrZCyUTZrEsM6DETeFIu5MwP4yan6m7WqE02tAcQ92xnNJL3BO1G9jjalWEiJ2kxLQyR7-ixGHWvaUTw52lvGSvAgW-JF-p3qQaJUT" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="490" data-original-width="665" height="293" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjkM5_D66QEbaJD6CcSgTJJK_jm-HapzFgT-6wBNtfEx0K4E5hUD7esG2eIjXp6J2BT4mugqwX2kdAa4FeQRBUrZCyUTZrEsM6DETeFIu5MwP4yan6m7WqE02tAcQ92xnNJL3BO1G9jjalWEiJ2kxLQyR7-ixGHWvaUTw52lvGSvAgW-JF-p3qQaJUT=w445-h293" width="445" /></a></div><br /><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">CO2 in rain makes a weak acid, which causes the chemical weathering.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Rivers carry the carbon compounds down to the oceans, where various processes (such as the formation of calcareous shells by organisms) eventually deposit the material on the ocean floor.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">This is the long, slow, part of the carbon cycle.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-89675394167610169562023-03-09T22:41:00.009+00:002023-03-17T17:22:56.190+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - CO2 and climate sensitivity<div class="disc-comment__body" itemprop="text" style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.75rem;"><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The effect of increasing CO2 is often described using a concept called <b>"climate sensitivity". </b></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(Sometimes "equilibrium climate sensitivity" ..... ECS)</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Climate sensitivity basically = <b>"how much does the temperature rise if we double the CO2?"</b></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">For example - from this paper......</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><b><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29345639/"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">"Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability" - Cox et al, 2018</span></a></b></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><i><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">"2.2-3.4C, 2.8C with 66% confidence limits"</span></i></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">So <b>doubling CO2 from around 270 ppm (the pre-industrial value) to around 540 ppm</b> would raise average global temperatures by <b>around 2.8 C deg +/-0.6 C deg</b></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">We are at about 420 ppm now.</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEibU_0Yr4voF3U71ND6OeJwo1HxFiLbVOy8CQhHXytWEvRL8YlgEukm4_zBIOvRDEoitTMqxHC7dtj_4cNoSqij-SnNtlV93dIA26r6KXyWkkemxJx6-oogArvWz2aISJLnYTv5qANVHap320mK0dYEe9TlqXmdBb3CsojAHdX8W1hlEWk6iN__FDLA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="251" data-original-width="620" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEibU_0Yr4voF3U71ND6OeJwo1HxFiLbVOy8CQhHXytWEvRL8YlgEukm4_zBIOvRDEoitTMqxHC7dtj_4cNoSqij-SnNtlV93dIA26r6KXyWkkemxJx6-oogArvWz2aISJLnYTv5qANVHap320mK0dYEe9TlqXmdBb3CsojAHdX8W1hlEWk6iN__FDLA=w535-h300" width="535" /></a></div><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">At the current increase in CO2, getting to around 540 ppm by the end of century is not impossible.</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The IPCC have looked at all the research on climate sensitivity, and their best estimate is that doubling CO2 produces a rise in average global temperature of 3 C degrees. This is shown in this figure from IPCC AR6 WG1:</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEguZM4U9gBjEvaNE2SGzinxw041_buzd3N_WbjAzkzfNMEkuSIYnYonr7vHalOdXOZTAh4pRDnh466HWGHrbb_n3FFfE4mMqCQVFXHUvazPaRzXs2HU2L6aP8kFqVutN_MhAWX-hCSTkZaDkBImK8g2AcaftBaGTeiPqghCw46JILt8uW8HJjUL18Aq" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1821" data-original-width="2127" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEguZM4U9gBjEvaNE2SGzinxw041_buzd3N_WbjAzkzfNMEkuSIYnYonr7vHalOdXOZTAh4pRDnh466HWGHrbb_n3FFfE4mMqCQVFXHUvazPaRzXs2HU2L6aP8kFqVutN_MhAWX-hCSTkZaDkBImK8g2AcaftBaGTeiPqghCw46JILt8uW8HJjUL18Aq=w508-h408" width="508" /></a> </div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">From</span> <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/technical-summary/figure-ts-16"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/technical-summary/figure-ts-16</span></a><div class="disc-comment__body" itemprop="text" style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.75rem;"><br /></div><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">UK Met Office: </span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-climate/climate-sensitivity-explained">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-climate/climate-sensitivity-explained</a></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">What effect do these potential temperature rises have? Carbon Brief has <a href="https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two-degrees/?utm_source=web&utm_campaign=Redirect">an interactive post that explores that question</a>. </span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p></div><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><a class="disc-comment__view-discussion js-comment-permalink" data-comment-id="153013330" data-link-name="View comment discussion" href="https://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/153013330" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #121212; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-family: "Guardian Text Sans Web", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 0.8125rem; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; line-height: 1.125rem; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out 0s;"></a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-44988690745088420662023-03-08T09:49:00.009+00:002023-03-09T11:24:57.421+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - What's Causing Global Warming?<p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1a1a1a; line-height: 1.875; margin: 0px 0px 1.875em;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">If the climate changed before humans, how can we be sure that human activities are responsible for the warming that’s happening today?1</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1a1a1a; line-height: 1.875; margin: 0px 0px 1.875em;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">First, we can eliminate many of the factors that can cause global climate change.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1a1a1a; line-height: 1.875; margin: 0px 0px 1.875em;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">1) </span><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The sun has been <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/189/graphic-temperature-vs-solar-activity/" style="box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px inset, rgb(26, 26, 26) 0px 1px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.2s; transition-property: color, box-shadow, -webkit-box-shadow; transition-timing-function: ease-in-out;" target="_blank">dimming slightly for the last half-century</a> while the Earth heats up, so global warming cannot be blamed on the sun.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1a1a1a; line-height: 1.875; margin: 0px 0px 1.875em;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">2) Volcanoes can produce CO2, but <a href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2014/09/volcanic-vs-human-emissions/">adding up all the CO2 produced by every volcano on Earth per year gives a number less than 1% of the CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels. </a></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1a1a1a; line-height: 1.875; margin: 0px 0px 1.875em;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">3) Orbital cycles that produce changes such as ice ages are <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2949/why-milankovitch-orbital-cycles-cant-explain-earths-current-warming/">currently in the wrong phases to account for the current warming, and the changes they cause happen over very long time periods</a>, not a century or two.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1a1a1a; line-height: 1.875; margin: 0px 0px 1.875em;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Scientists have carried out studies of all the possible "natural" causes. None can account for <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/">the current warming. </a></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1a1a1a; line-height: 1.875; margin: 0px 0px 1.875em;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">However, CO2 has been known to have a property often called <a href="https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/02/25/carbon-dioxide-cause-global-warming/">"The Greenhouse Effect"</a> since the 19th century. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1a1a1a; line-height: 1.875; margin: 0px 0px 1.875em;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">So.........</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUn3Q2GBPq_mHch0EyhgrAdHcub3es-K3dXAQMZwj94zBUNtPQDJXO6Fv1Fnw2J47RZ1QyDIbFo-JYKJyXXHCZV7Ub4M65ichU1zJIaRTFvdCJevNCLjmPfR5himF6a5Vq4cxWucRxZBdNrY48266ZrHQ-tcJha6cw1HklGHTgxBhUEWGyCSOLBAcQ/s600/600px-Temp-sunspot-co2.svg.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="600" height="365" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUn3Q2GBPq_mHch0EyhgrAdHcub3es-K3dXAQMZwj94zBUNtPQDJXO6Fv1Fnw2J47RZ1QyDIbFo-JYKJyXXHCZV7Ub4M65ichU1zJIaRTFvdCJevNCLjmPfR5himF6a5Vq4cxWucRxZBdNrY48266ZrHQ-tcJha6cw1HklGHTgxBhUEWGyCSOLBAcQ/w528-h365/600px-Temp-sunspot-co2.svg.png" width="528" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">From: </span></b><b><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-earth/glob-warm.html">http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-earth/glob-warm.html</a></span></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Some useful links:</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">A short video from Carbon Brief: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKDWW9WlPSc&t=82s">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKDWW9WlPSc&t=82s</a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">An article by geologist Howard Lee: <a href="https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-earths-climate-changes-naturally-and-why-things-are-different-now-20200721/">https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-earths-climate-changes-naturally-and-why-things-are-different-now-20200721/</a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The UK Met Office: <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/causes-of-climate-change">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/causes-of-climate-change</a><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The British Geological Survey: <a href="https://www.bgs.ac.uk/discovering-geology/climate-change/what-causes-the-earths-climate-to-change/">https://www.bgs.ac.uk/discovering-geology/climate-change/what-causes-the-earths-climate-to-change/</a><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">More from Carbon Brief: <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-scientists-think-100-of-global-warming-is-due-to-humans/">https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-scientists-think-100-of-global-warming-is-due-to-humans/</a></span><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1a1a1a; line-height: 1.875; margin: 0px 0px 1.875em;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /><br /><br /></span><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-38102193522751146682023-03-08T07:46:00.000+00:002023-03-08T07:46:33.699+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - The fossil fuel industry knew, decades ago<p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The oil industry’s pollution-control consultants advised the American Petroleum Institute in 1968 that carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels was a serious issue.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">“Changes in temperature on the world-wide scale could cause major changes in the earth’s atmosphere over the next several hundred years including change in the polar ice caps.”</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13042016/climate-change-global-warming-oil-industry-radar-1960s-exxon-api-co2-fossil-fuels/" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(110, 153, 179); border-left-color: rgb(110, 153, 179); border-right-color: rgb(110, 153, 179); border-top-color: rgb(110, 153, 179); color: #052962; cursor: pointer; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none !important; touch-action: manipulation; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out 0s;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13042016/climate-change-global-warming-oil-industry-radar-1960s-exxon-api-co2-fossil-fuels/</span></a></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The fossil fuel industry owes huge amounts for compensation, and for lying about climate change for decades.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The Exxon internal report, 1982, produced by their own scientists:</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2805576-1982-Exxon-Memo-to-Management-About-CO2.html" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #052962; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none !important; touch-action: manipulation; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out 0s;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2805576-1982-Exxon-Memo-to-Management-About-CO2.html</span></a></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The key graph (it's on page 14 of the report):</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://i.redd.it/ljifc828iui31.jpg" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #052962; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none !important; touch-action: manipulation; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out 0s;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://i.redd.it/ljifc828iui31.jpg</span></a></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Amazingly accurate for 1982, if you look at the projections for eg 2020 and beyond.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-21080599697785461502023-03-06T21:33:00.000+00:002023-03-06T21:33:50.840+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - Where are we headed?<p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Where are we headed, climate-wise?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">It's now a choice of <b>difficult</b> outcomes or <b>very very difficult</b> (or add even more "verys" if the response is totally inadequate)</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Temperatures would stabilise "over a human lifetime" if CO2 levels stop rising. They don't decline quickly, but there is a very slow downward drift over a very long time. However, <b>all IPCC scenarios show 1.5 being overtaken at some point between around 2030 and 2040</b> - we've wasted too much time to do better than that - the "Denial Decades".</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Note that the stabilising of temperature implies EITHER all burning of fossil fuel stops, OR if some is still burned, every bit of CO2 produced is accounted for in a real process of sequestration.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj1WFjgYtR7nqXyXYJvXNbaDv3xfQj3_JaJrdaJ9cqA_0iYWcODBf6GR0G85yffpLuVGcgnIH9bsSBlxZpe_4--vepbCj9WYmtzeel7gJ8B5FN-9tQg73hKbM8Qcz46eWOkCRFjYgxnbONq-_mffhnUUmDSZfN8kNIvLi4arbE7vaAjNK03yKZAICuY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="490" data-original-width="614" height="449" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj1WFjgYtR7nqXyXYJvXNbaDv3xfQj3_JaJrdaJ9cqA_0iYWcODBf6GR0G85yffpLuVGcgnIH9bsSBlxZpe_4--vepbCj9WYmtzeel7gJ8B5FN-9tQg73hKbM8Qcz46eWOkCRFjYgxnbONq-_mffhnUUmDSZfN8kNIvLi4arbE7vaAjNK03yKZAICuY=w604-h449" width="604" /></a></div><br /><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Stopping the rise in CO2 also begins to stabilise the water cycle, so rain etc doesn't get a lot worse (it'll be pretty bad by then)</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">As for coastal areas - the Earth's ice masses are not even in equilibrium with the temperature we have now, and certainly not with whatever temperature we might stop at - <b>sea level will continue to rise in any scenario, long after any point at which we level the CO2 graph, for centuries at least</b>. This means eg that most of the biggest cities on Earth have to defend or retreat over time. We have triggered what geologists call a marine transgression.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">My source is this article by Professor Peter Thorne, one of the hundreds of scientists who produced the IPCC report published in August 2021 (IPCC AR6 WG1):</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/0809/1239772-ipcc-report-2021-key-takeaways/" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #052962; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none !important; touch-action: manipulation; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out 0s;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/0809/1239772-ipcc-report-2021-key-takeaways/</span></a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-8602232673993120552023-03-05T19:03:00.002+00:002023-03-05T22:48:16.382+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - 24,000 Years<p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">A quick reminder of what global warming is about.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">24,000-year graph of Earth temperatures:</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgsU7N8O0kPjLroA2v8KyTduh8fDQgQjN1ou6AZogGXVmzNjbRzNbZIAdw2KLmujX6_mFcemxm2hsd7W8CgmGx01sqg1SwjDqkRSyC6qGWHqqWeGJYYXx-lIi48nRPFUDF-2vRw67Y3HPAbCMYfQRYeDpcZCB6pCXeWaHqNnvfd92_sK4MmTEFAMTAW" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="614" data-original-width="980" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgsU7N8O0kPjLroA2v8KyTduh8fDQgQjN1ou6AZogGXVmzNjbRzNbZIAdw2KLmujX6_mFcemxm2hsd7W8CgmGx01sqg1SwjDqkRSyC6qGWHqqWeGJYYXx-lIi48nRPFUDF-2vRw67Y3HPAbCMYfQRYeDpcZCB6pCXeWaHqNnvfd92_sK4MmTEFAMTAW=w561-h324" width="561" /></a></div><br /><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-09-at-6.48.24-PM-980x614.png" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #052962; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none !important; touch-action: manipulation; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out 0s;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-09-at-6.48.24-PM-980x614.png</span></a></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Based on this paper</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03984-4" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #052962; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none !important; touch-action: manipulation; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out 0s;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03984-4</span></a></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><b>"Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum" -Osman et al, 2021</b></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">This comes from careful palaeoclimatological research.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-77199291426183340322023-03-04T15:45:00.010+00:002023-03-06T10:19:40.778+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - Potential Futures for the Earth's Climate<p id="GQ3Fqo" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; font-family: Balto, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZFQEFImE_dJACaC2A7KRumyNadNfZv06_EArm3ksicLz6fl6lo9VuSZOqlS2lQFVuzy6GF4sxvM0N_4sAUmfl7H6CNbt0kpPBS6bl6tsMZ3ib6RerS04jpUZ4K4utHKN1wmkB9Rc5VBnrKIFB9VmEg6TU3q5SU3xl-0HHardT26X-SvoTg4VIgzpb" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="298" data-original-width="610" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZFQEFImE_dJACaC2A7KRumyNadNfZv06_EArm3ksicLz6fl6lo9VuSZOqlS2lQFVuzy6GF4sxvM0N_4sAUmfl7H6CNbt0kpPBS6bl6tsMZ3ib6RerS04jpUZ4K4utHKN1wmkB9Rc5VBnrKIFB9VmEg6TU3q5SU3xl-0HHardT26X-SvoTg4VIgzpb=w562-h244" width="562" /></a></div><br /><p id="GQ3Fqo" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; font-family: Balto, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><br /></span></p><p id="GQ3Fqo" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">1) SSP1-1.9</span> — This scenario has been described as “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681?via%3Dihub" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4f7177; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; transition: color 0.1s ease 0s, background-color 0.1s ease 0s, fill 0.1s ease 0s; vertical-align: inherit;">taking the green road</a>.” </span></p><p id="GQ3Fqo" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">It’s the most ambitious and hardest-to-achieve storyline. It envisions a gradual but concerted shift toward clean energy, with few political barriers in adapting to and mitigating climate change. </span></p><p id="GQ3Fqo" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">This entails a rapid drawdown of fossil fuels, widespread deployment of clean energy, increasing energy efficiency, and lower resource demands. By the middle of the century, humanity will zero out its contributions to climate change.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p id="qT6BOa" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">This scenario also assumes inclusive global development that lifts all countries. It imagines improvements in education and health that would help stabilize population growth, with the total declining slightly to 7 billion people. To create this future, humans would likely need to achieve a global philosophical shift away from the pursuit of economic growth and toward improvements in human well-being.</span></p><p id="3a1EZB" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">While every scenario in the new IPCC report will likely overshoot the 1.5°C target, under SSP1-1.9, global average temperatures would eventually decline below this level by 2100. It’s also worth noting that 1.5°C of warming is no picnic; that’s still warmer than the world is today, leading to effects like increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves and extreme rainfall.</span></p><p id="1tptka" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">2) SSP1-2.6</span> — This pathway envisions that the world will eventually get its act together on climate change, but more slowly than in the optimistic path of SSP1-1.9. It envisions an economy with net-zero emissions after 2050. SSP1-2.6 also expects the global population to reach 7 billion people. The result is a world that will warm up to 1.8°C, with a likely range between 1.3°C and 2.4°C by 2100.</span></p><p id="tSxm4m" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">It may not seem like much, but this increase in warming compared to SSP1-1.9 has major ripple effects. Sea levels will have risen between 30 and 54 centimeters by the end of the century, up from the <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4f7177; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; transition: color 0.1s ease 0s, background-color 0.1s ease 0s, fill 0.1s ease 0s; vertical-align: inherit;">24 cm of rise</a> that has already occurred. That would inundate major coastal metropolises on a regular basis and put another 10 million people around the world at risk from coastal flooding. A world with 2°C of warming would double the number of people exposed to extreme heat compared to a 1.5°C scenario. And every additional bit of warming would bring more environmental declines and exposure to climate hazards.</span></p><p id="5DQyeh" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">3) SSP2-4.5</span> — Sometimes described as “middle of the road,” this scenario lines up with what countries have pledged to do so far about climate change. If every country actually fulfilled its existing obligations, their emissions would lead to about 2.7°C of warming by 2100, with a likely range between 2.1°C and 3.5°C. Under this scenario, the Arctic Ocean would likely be ice-free in the summer, which could have ripple effects on weather all over the world.</span></p><p id="4Y5z0Z" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">On top of the devastating effects in the first two scenarios, scientists expect that <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/11/1052171" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4f7177; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; transition: color 0.1s ease 0s, background-color 0.1s ease 0s, fill 0.1s ease 0s; vertical-align: inherit;">3°C of warming</a> would cause a significant drop in global food production, far more extreme heat, and more devastating flooding from extreme rainfall.</span></p><p id="BM6ekM" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">This storyline<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"> </span>presumes that future global development patterns will not radically shift from historical trends. Inequalities will still persist between countries and development will be slow, but there will be international cooperation on environmental goals. The global population in this scenario would peak at 9.6 billion people.</span></p><p id="v11rlD" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">4) SSP3-7.0</span> — In this narrative, nationalism is resurgent and countries retreat from international cooperation, focusing instead on their own economic goals. “I sort of jokingly refer to this as Trumpworld,” said <a href="https://thebreakthrough.org/people/zeke-hausfather" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4f7177; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; transition: color 0.1s ease 0s, background-color 0.1s ease 0s, fill 0.1s ease 0s; vertical-align: inherit;">Zeke Hausfather</a>, director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute and a contributing author to the latest IPCC report. “It’s a reasonable storyline for what a worst-case world could look like.”</span></p><p id="6ObggG" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">This would lead to countries exploiting their own fossil fuels resources more. Investments in education and technological development would decline. Population growth would slow in industrialized countries but remain high in developing countries, with the total reaching 12.6 billion people. Solving climate change would become a low international priority.</span></p><p id="yslh4d" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">SSP3-7.0 also accounts for high levels of heat-trapping gases, other than carbon dioxide, including aerosols and methane. By the end of the century, sea levels will have risen catastrophically — between 46 cm and 74 cm in this scenario — and the world will have warmed by roughly 3.6°C, with a range between 2.8°C and 4.6°C.</span></p><p id="iS8fWr" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Fortunately, this scenario is on the fringes of what’s plausible, scientists say. “That’s not the world we’re heading toward right now, but it’s certainly a world you could see happening,” Hausfather said.</span></p><p id="v9NKWD" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">5) SSP5-8.5</span> — Imagine a world where humanity doesn’t just do nothing about climate change but continues to make it worse. This scenario envisions global economic growth across the board fueled by burning coal, oil, and natural gas, with the planet’s population leveling off at 7 billion people. While resources are devoted to adapting to climate change, there is little effort to mitigate emissions.</span></p><p id="biOxYS" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The net result would be 4.4°C of warming, with a range between 3.3°C and 5.7°C. As if large-scale coastal inundation and extremely destructive weather weren’t enough, parts of the planet would become unlivable during the hottest times of the year. This odd combination of assumptions and results makes this the most dire but one of the least plausible scenarios. However, it helps scientists probe the upper limits of their models.</span></p><p id="biOxYS" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The graph and descriptions come from</span></p><p id="biOxYS" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.vox.com/22620706/climate-change-ipcc-report-2021-ssp-scenario-future-warming </span></p><p id="tSxm4m" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">IPCC AR6 WG1 Headline Statements: </span></p><p id="tSxm4m" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="background-color: transparent; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #4c4e4d; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Headline_Statements.pdf</span></span></p><p id="3a1EZB" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4e4d; font-family: Balto, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;"><br /></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-36687754433848480202023-03-03T22:13:00.015+00:002023-03-12T08:57:22.442+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - The Keeling Curve - keeping track of atmospheric CO2<p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">Back in the 1950s, Charles Keeling took up a suggestion from his supervisor that it would be an interesting project for his PhD in chemistry to develop a way of measuring atmospheric CO2 concentration very accurately ...... he had no idea that he would find it rising year on year.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiPevZFKHDbJ01qIwdSy12KtVsYx761W8ZbTK90aAKcrlaZYucv06VvEAVbpPGFHCKDHL1bBtQm6pBjl2Cjc2J3fybFnXWJVdPt7wLohrzIrbs79_IQtEqdo5rQd6e8MUOVyw-oRgOIYsbMb4_qeZQjeyFIVMEDapYDDm5NLOwqfnrf79IXuve7gIbB" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="1084" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiPevZFKHDbJ01qIwdSy12KtVsYx761W8ZbTK90aAKcrlaZYucv06VvEAVbpPGFHCKDHL1bBtQm6pBjl2Cjc2J3fybFnXWJVdPt7wLohrzIrbs79_IQtEqdo5rQd6e8MUOVyw-oRgOIYsbMb4_qeZQjeyFIVMEDapYDDm5NLOwqfnrf79IXuve7gIbB=w539-h236" width="539" /></a></div><br /><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Why the wiggle? The Keeling Curve has an annual cycle.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Every year there is a decline in CO2 during months of terrestrial plant photosynthesis (basically northern summer) and an increase in CO2 in months without large amounts of photosynthesis and with significant decomposition - in both cases, it relates to the northern hemisphere, where there are more forests.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #052962; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out 0s;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: large;"><b>https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/</b></span></a></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="color: #121212; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><b><a href="https://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/datasets/mauna/welcome.html#1958">https://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/datasets/mauna/welcome.html#1958</a></b></span></span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-46563248761759437622023-03-02T19:29:00.003+00:002023-03-05T22:49:37.722+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - How could so-called "climate sceptics" actually challenge the science of climate change? <p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">I find Thomas Kuhn's analysis of how science proceeds is very useful - he describes science as a set of <b>"paradigms"</b>. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">A scientific paradigm only begins to crumble if evidence accumulates that doesn't fit into it well, and this starts the process that Kuhn called <b>"paradigm shift"</b>.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">For a paradigm to change, researchers would have:</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br />(a) produced plenty of <b>new research-based evidence</b> that does not fit the paradigm, and </span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(b) offered <b>an alternative paradigm</b> that explains all the previous evidence plus the new evidence.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Until both (a) and (b) take place, a paradigm stands.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><b>Plate tectonics</b> came about in pretty much the way Kuhn describes - there were various older paradigms in geology, but progressively more and more evidence came along that did not fit into them. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">By the mid 1960s there was enough evidence to create the new plate tectonic paradigm and the old paradigms vanished almost instantly.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><b>So where does AGW/climate science stand?</b></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Have those who wish to challenge AGW and the general scientific position on climate change..... </span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(a) produced plenty of new research-based evidence that does not fit the paradigm? and </span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(b) offered an alternative paradigm that explains all the previous evidence plus the new evidence?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(a) No. (b) No.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">What they do <i>instead</i> is grumble that they should be entitled to be listened to as if they had done all that, because they don't like what the evidence tells us.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The current scientific understanding of climate change (as summarised in IPCC reports) is <b>accepted by every professional association of research scientists on Earth</b> - in every field of science. Over 200 academies. Those associations represent the global scientific community of around 8 million research scientists.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">There is no other scientific position on this matter, because no other "opinion" related to this matter is supported by evidence.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-44321746408604904412023-02-28T17:57:00.003+00:002023-03-05T22:50:03.277+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - PHYSICISTS PREDICT EARTH WILL BECOME A CHAOTIC WORLD<div class="disc-comment__body" itemprop="text" style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.75rem;"><p style="font-family: "Guardian Text Sans Web", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">" ......in the worst cases, the researchers found that Earth's climate leads to chaos............. </span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">A chaotic climate would have seasons that change wildly from decade to decade (or even year to year).</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br />Some years would experience sudden flashes of extreme weather, while others would be completely quiet.</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br />Even the average Earth temperature may fluctuate wildly, swinging from cooler to hotter periods in relatively short periods of time.........."</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.livescience.com/humanity-turns-earth-chaotic-climate-system" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #052962; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none !important; touch-action: manipulation; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out 0s;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.livescience.com/humanity-turns-earth-chaotic-climate-system</span></a></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The paper: </span><a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.08955" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #052962; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none !important; touch-action: manipulation; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out 0s;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.08955</span></a></p></div><p><a class="disc-comment__view-discussion js-comment-permalink" data-comment-id="161430287" data-link-name="View comment discussion" href="https://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/161430287" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); color: #121212; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; font-family: "Guardian Text Sans Web", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 0.8125rem; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; line-height: 1.125rem; text-decoration-line: none !important; touch-action: manipulation; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out 0s;"></a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-43078713204357016312023-02-27T22:44:00.030+00:002023-03-18T17:29:32.290+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE <p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #050505; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><b>Global average temperature</b> - a link about what global average temperature means, and some links to the data.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-do-scientists-measure-global-temperature?fbclid=IwAR2-LyogtDec03ai18b1_yIC29H_w7J123SgLs3_G4Ue7c2vleIHYaFkhAw" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-do-scientists...</span></span></a></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #050505; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Decadal temperature anomalies</b></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #050505; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> (which means the difference between a given value and a previous average)</span><a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/sotc/global/2020/dec/decadal-global-temps-1881s-2011s.png?fbclid=IwAR1PrtO6yxa5IuffjnRIspw6LerS_sC_6xdeJIXlgCs1R55DKcaSN7QKWFg" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #050505; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></a></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjaFTucsP0NxfP1ILmbJ5XAXmXOtNhhv9Vbo1VFy1eI88H37G0jUytfPqHtaBKTYWeSrjyyCjw39v05V_9UADcv3SfyTStFkbE2vM_Zm_N6EQbkJ-MD8Y8Uof5c79QEobWD_vj5uX_6nk_1OgxODrSfXXP9iJUDUniCghS_eP7cuolNCWYhhPooX9bP" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="335" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjaFTucsP0NxfP1ILmbJ5XAXmXOtNhhv9Vbo1VFy1eI88H37G0jUytfPqHtaBKTYWeSrjyyCjw39v05V_9UADcv3SfyTStFkbE2vM_Zm_N6EQbkJ-MD8Y8Uof5c79QEobWD_vj5uX_6nk_1OgxODrSfXXP9iJUDUniCghS_eP7cuolNCWYhhPooX9bP=w521-h335" width="521" /></a></div><br /><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/sotc/global/2020/dec/decadal-global-temps-1881s-2011s.png?fbclid=IwAR1PrtO6yxa5IuffjnRIspw6LerS_sC_6xdeJIXlgCs1R55DKcaSN7QKWFg" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/.../decadal-global-temps-1881s...</span></a></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #050505; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>The 2022 report from Berkeley Earth</b></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #050505; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">*, one of the organisations that produces annual global temperature data:</span><a href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fberkeleyearth.org%2Fglobal-temperature-report-for-2022%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR26d3j_14ubzS3ZQzhbbDiGE1PzIn7d7rL5X2C7e_fUZf59cZhDCAvxBuU&h=AT0SMBKK5PKCYSoJq4Z8Fv2lRXc45p9X-Esmp25A8XzUCYicbngtC1fOirVkhOAqz9XosaslsENh_uvRlFoTeAdviQ37OZG_eytW9xEu6OVDxjp4nRCoUPSFEhJ6Yi4FrQ&__tn__=-UK-R&c[0]=AT0aSOadB7Q1KKoKHOu7nR6fw1x20J_5z5tOwcAK1SoLrUJwzIt4gAYeiaZZtBeajtLeqgdlY5fKyXSHBle-RoovV9N0jV3-Rj5kEMqjLij3Z8Lk3ckpDkwtnyzHqPBNf7JCRUZoRLDKmgHpngxeHKIQCim6l0OLKRroFPBMWAlPEA" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #050505; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for.../</span></a></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span id="docs-internal-guid-02ed2e7a-7fff-efad-fa2a-e675008daf61"></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #050505; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>The UK Met Office 2022 report</b></span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #050505; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, which includes mention of the effect of the El Nino/La Nina cycle:</span><a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/2022-hadcrut5-wmo-temperature-statement?fbclid=IwAR23EwWfI2QjpXBPcG_MdcQztEmBeoNcuuQ2ZmSCbxL-8g9SwXhoMI_Rl8U" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #050505; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></a><a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/2022-hadcrut5-wmo-temperature-statement" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/2022-hadcrut5-wmo-temperature-statement</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #050505; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #050505; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhYux7PaG04HNVzBzn5g7nWb2u0Zkrs_BGDlnPXU7i-zKqAhvi13Zy1WKuD7my9GiqNa1koR0OWg7B_c_UA541eIdben2bsceXjcUNwPZdneyqoJ4G1RfFIpzke0IdqmUa3aafSQqLis4rFqHWRl6Xm7gN7kQfD581ba_iRkx0iRZQyS_qHnBlSfvz1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="474" data-original-width="600" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhYux7PaG04HNVzBzn5g7nWb2u0Zkrs_BGDlnPXU7i-zKqAhvi13Zy1WKuD7my9GiqNa1koR0OWg7B_c_UA541eIdben2bsceXjcUNwPZdneyqoJ4G1RfFIpzke0IdqmUa3aafSQqLis4rFqHWRl6Xm7gN7kQfD581ba_iRkx0iRZQyS_qHnBlSfvz1=w551-h396" width="551" /></a></div><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #050505; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">*Berkeley Earth came out of the endless complaints that the global temperature records had been "faked". </span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="color: #121212; font-family: verdana; font-size: large; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">Independent sceptical scientists set up a Berkeley Earth in 2010 to investigate the global temperature records.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="color: #121212; font-family: verdana; font-size: large; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">They found independent funding, including from sceptics in the business community. </span><span style="color: #121212; font-family: verdana; font-size: large; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">Many so-called climate sceptics said this was exactly what they wanted, and they would accept what BE reported.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The first phase of the project took about 2 years; they went right back to all the raw data from all the data sets, and reassessed all the adjustments made for the distribution and location of stations, and for things like the Urban Heat Island effect.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: large;">When BE then reported that their research agreed with other researchers that:</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">- </span><span style="font-family: verdana;"><i>the Earth is warming;</i></span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><i>- has been since the 19th century;</i></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><i>- and that greenhouse gases produced by human activity are the cause....</i></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">- suddenly the so-called climate sceptic websites rejected BE, and never mention it.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The sceptical scientists, of course, now accepted that their check on other scientists' work had confirmed that the science published on this matter is good science - because those sceptical scientists were real sceptics.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/skeptics-guide-to-climate-change.pdf">https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/skeptics-guide-to-climate-change.pdf</a><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #050505; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-81170044671544440932023-02-26T22:30:00.004+00:002023-03-08T08:03:10.088+00:00CLIMATE WATCH - Climate Myths<div class="post-body entry-content float-container" id="post-body-5813405170854325987" style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.5em 0px 2em;"><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><b>A Climate Myth about CO2 and temperature</b></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">We often see claims that "temperature always increases first, followed by a rise in CO2". The "sceptic" blogs quote this a lot, and the main error here is "always".</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">This sequence ONLY happens at the end of glacial stages, at the very beginning of deglaciation. In other geological contexts, CO2 rises first. But this one situation has become a key part of many "sceptic" comments.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">So what is going on? The initial warming as deglaciation starts is driven by astronomical cycles, Milankovitch Cycles:</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iA788usYNWA&t=193s&fbclid=IwAR0wmJksuiItI8xtkSk6cgzkB9BSOquJc_is-F5KC6F9UD1bwZT6ad-tiaQ" style="background: transparent; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: black; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iA788usYNWA&t=193s</span></span></a></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Another</span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lbJrvtxWNE&fbclid=IwAR2NPj_Ecc2RseZAeTNkRwwopZ17cF1d2BbEn0sSPD-_-rHuwGAiIRrg8_k" style="background: transparent; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lbJrvtxWNE</span></a></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(I don't often post videos in scientific comments, but to illustrate these cycles it's the obvious thing to do)</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">This initial warming causes the oceans to release CO2. Then the CO2 amplifies the warming.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">So rising temperature initially causes CO2 rise .... AND THEN THE INCREASE IN CO2 causes far more warming. Overall, about 90% of the global warming occurs after the CO2 increase.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-the-rise-and-fall-of-co2-levels-influenced-the-ice-ages/?fbclid=IwAR3NIhAGYrZpM5lXgUPoV4ksfec8_O3BNjWHs_Y690sv0ae9k7ke8Wum7G4" style="background: transparent; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: black; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-the-rise-and.../</span></span></a></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">This paper is the one I post when addressing this issue:</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature10915?fbclid=IwAR2gdYERyUT3Pebyvr8KOjvEcPTCX9BCslHCyFQdTlpFbYV4mh6ALlwAxIo" style="background: transparent; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: black; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.nature.com/articles/nature10915</span></span></a></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">"Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation" - Shakun et al (Nature, 2012)</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Note that the 2nd sentence in the abstract is often as far as some readers go - it sets the problem that this paper addresses and resolves, but "sceptics" quote it as if the problem hasn't been addressed. I would have worded that sentence differently.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><b>A Climate Myth about the Sun</b></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">No, variations in the energy output from the Sun are not causing the current climate change.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(1) Solar energy output appears to have remained relatively stable since the 1700s and has not been responsible for climate change.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Link:</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><a href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.iau.org%2Fnews%2Fpressreleases%2Fdetail%2Fiau1508%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR3h-DB1Tuzcy448YC5ZLncBSnS5uhTe75dH8QeqCRwqBbU8UyGogJw4xn8&h=AT1rFKBZDxhIAo1XDDj-iE4IqTH75xxS_PvnG9PMt0FmhU5CT-IqzfLK-Nam2zbpE1ViusiSDODXU55cuiJNsfh-uvuD9m-cjKJAW5NdFdneO0onERdpMXIhqjqfjy-ZnQ&__tn__=-UK-R&c[0]=AT0yrs1R_yJvUdpzLYciTBpscVTqmFcSXQhPPnP52vVolT8XiIqA5cauJ1cgSbttBvWwFGqBEKoUeHZfEiBEbfxPPIXRH2YonMI-TjovCqHMEO7cxXZCazh8t8bbSa_5FljBe6d080f72DglkYtn90w9MA-IJIQBaNFYszJvt1CBRg" style="background: transparent; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: black; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau1508/</span></span></a></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">That's from The International Astronomical Union, the expert international body in astronomy. </span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(2) What about later this century? A future grand solar minimum has been suggested as a potential cause of "global cooling". But. A GSM could see global average temperature rise trimmed by around 0.12C for the second half of this century - not a lot compared to the rise in temperatures coming from AGW.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">My source is: "Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum" - Ineson et al, 2015</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(3) The Sun is a Main Sequence star, so it increases its energy output very slowly over time. In the Cambrian, over 500 million years ago, the energy output was about 5% lower than now.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">With an increase in output of about 0.1% per million years, this has no connection with the current global warming of course.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><a href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.geologywales.co.uk%2Fstorms%2Fsolar.jpg%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR0t8BlxyLmdN1446ertBnU0xuEMIrGdjzUhNOi324p9Dz2UnBLkaMK6GGk&h=AT0A1FxjzLVdudGihLYpemETwx7xOsZPc-y_wLf16D5fqr-WgSloSxokYt8U5UnaztMv7UQLNzeIfFafo3TtTExQTaBQe1F8X6n-UHipDI23OXPa0YEht5xuHYLdwkBlxA&__tn__=-UK-R&c[0]=AT0yrs1R_yJvUdpzLYciTBpscVTqmFcSXQhPPnP52vVolT8XiIqA5cauJ1cgSbttBvWwFGqBEKoUeHZfEiBEbfxPPIXRH2YonMI-TjovCqHMEO7cxXZCazh8t8bbSa_5FljBe6d080f72DglkYtn90w9MA-IJIQBaNFYszJvt1CBRg" style="background: transparent; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: black; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">http://www.geologywales.co.uk/storms/solar.jpg</span></span></a></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><b>Climate Myths about Ice Ages </b></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">A "sceptic" myth that appears quite often is "we don't need to worry about global warming - there's an ice age coming soon".</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">In reality, the Ice Age (the succession of glacial and glacial stages) might have ended, simply because CO2 levels are now too high. Glacial advances require CO2 levels to be quite low - in all the previous glacial stages of the Pleistocene "ice age", CO2 was under around 230 ppm.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">CO2 was significantly above that (at about 270 ppm) even before the Industrial Revolution. With CO2 now around 415 ppm we are not likely to see a new glacial stage within any time we might be interested in.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><a href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.carbonbrief.org%2Fhuman-emissions-will-delay-next-ice-age-by-50000-years-study-says%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR35sQwjSY_eADC5JQHxWNrbS1ShAhs2TQlX2WqT4C8MpBKW2Eiks992Urg&h=AT0xAnH5GLxERRcu5AP679z_j4SvaB_Mxoi31NlEzslhrPlZitoJno_29pegUDvk_bj4M-meLQYXJejP4UJariHnMElfKN1VJq8JZcMeldEdImpaCEWLqW-rU7vCWTIRrA&__tn__=-UK-R&c[0]=AT2TdVQF37hUn8YTg8qUCa1_JfQQm9R3kB7Lj2_HUUdu_14cvt2yNuQ8vFdXbSfrSbBmFTjaEh4nV-w5aWRiBR3tjv-Y3_-nPri5uuqz_uFNTGF5i7ldDuxdiSNKxntJdQ0rMJ3beokcE6WXPtRM4HqQHur-U_X9QwkdI8F2P3s-Sw" style="background: transparent; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: black; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.carbonbrief.org/human-emissions-will-delay.../</span></span></a></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Glacial inception requires summer temperatures in the northern hemisphere to be low enough for snow to build up year on year, starting mainly on north-facing slopes of mountain ranges. This in itself acts as a feedback - as the snow and ice covers an increasing area, it reflects more solar energy, reinforcing the cooling process.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">While we are considering ice ages, what about the Little Ice Age? </span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">None of the small-scale variations within the Holocene were as significant as the current change, which is a major disruption of the long-term carbon cycle. The Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age were concepts that came out of relatively early climate research. Newer research suggests that we need to be careful about how significant they were.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">I recommend "Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age" - Lockwood et al, 2017</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><a href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Facademic.oup.com%2Fastrogeo%2Farticle%2F58%2F2%2F2.17%2F3074082%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR3NIhAGYrZpM5lXgUPoV4ksfec8_O3BNjWHs_Y690sv0ae9k7ke8Wum7G4&h=AT1BE9-zdK5pn_OgH1COZWQ8UQSW6DndNmFYXPo08_GhOIdflYewtsWzNEKzblZvhhnKbY-u05iqiDw_DqT_kg1A-JbFy2ZHoaV1af2kZuzbz_ZfVYmbbajUthQ4DEUi3w&__tn__=-UK-R&c[0]=AT2TdVQF37hUn8YTg8qUCa1_JfQQm9R3kB7Lj2_HUUdu_14cvt2yNuQ8vFdXbSfrSbBmFTjaEh4nV-w5aWRiBR3tjv-Y3_-nPri5uuqz_uFNTGF5i7ldDuxdiSNKxntJdQ0rMJ3beokcE6WXPtRM4HqQHur-U_X9QwkdI8F2P3s-Sw" style="background: transparent; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: black; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/article/58/2/2.17/3074082</span></span></a></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Climate Myths about Models in Climate Science</b></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">“This climate change, it's just all based on inaccurate computer models" - I've seen that so many times.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(1) Computer models are not the only basis for climate science. At the core of climate science there are some basic concepts in atmospheric physics discovered in the 19th century.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><a href="https://cdn.auckland.ac.nz/assets/physics/about/our-staff/documents/inaugural_final.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0cwnoGKQfkKjvbTK01n98VsBBn5eRuubS5M9O6ozFxOuws2YOkoYj6DeA" style="background: transparent; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: black; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://cdn.auckland.ac.nz/.../documents/inaugural_final.pdf</span></span></a></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(2) Climate models that were run 50 years ago were pretty accurate in indicating where we'd be in the 2020s.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming?fbclid=IwAR1NFYAQMeyKpOTBnVfxHGJaHDAR568wPqz2Qhn395w-wntq1w6RGKknRZE" style="background: transparent; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: black; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have...</span></span></a></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">From the Conclusion......</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">"Climate models published since 1973 have generally been quite skilful in projecting future warming. While some were too low and some too high, they all show outcomes reasonably close to what has actually occurred, especially when discrepancies between predicted and actual CO2 concentrations and other climate forcings are taken into account."</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">(3) In the early 1980s, the fossil fuel corporation, Exxon, got its own scientists to investigate climate change, and the conclusions were the same as every other project.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">They used their own model to show how the Earth was likely to warm in the future, and the predictions for the 2020s were remarkably accurate.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk0063?fbclid=IwAR3HUUAw8XDmRLBS41Vaqg7k2GSr7Q33ZXwxTv1kbuY96GY-ho8nSnaMhQc" style="background: transparent; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: black; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk0063</span></span></a></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">" ...... we demonstrated that Exxon’s internal documents, as well as peer-reviewed studies published by Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp scientists, overwhelmingly acknowledged that climate change is real and human-caused. By contrast, the majority of Mobil and ExxonMobil Corp’s public communications promoted doubt on the matter. "</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>A Climate Myth about Volcanoes</b></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">No, volcanoes are not causing the current warming of the Earth. Human activity in burning fossil fuels produces over 100 times as much CO2 per year than all the Earth's volcanoes put together.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><a href="https://factcheck.afp.com/no-volcanoes-do-not-emit-more-carbon-dioxide-human-activity?fbclid=IwAR1kYtIaI7EtSYweSiKqvjhjj2ixe77YcaHRih2OF-fSZ0FwlJ77PSxOOZs" style="background: transparent; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: black; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://factcheck.afp.com/no-volcanoes-do-not-emit-more...</span></span></a></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><b>A Climate Myth about "Natural Cycles"</b></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">There are many "natural processes" that can cause climate change.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Obviously, scientists have investigated the possibility that the current change is caused by some natural process.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The Earth's temperature is a response to various factors, called climate forcings, such as changes in the gases in the air, changes in the Earth's orbit and rotation (which alters the amount of energy reaching the surface from the Sun), plate movements, ocean currents, and some others.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Here's a useful summary of these, produced by the British Geological Survey:</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.bgs.ac.uk/discoveringGeology/climateChange/general/causes.html" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none !important; touch-action: manipulation; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out 0s;"><span style="color: black; font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">https://www.bgs.ac.uk/discoveringGeology/climateChange/general/causes.html</span></a></p><p style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Then to discover which factors are involved in the current warming we turn to attribution studies.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Here's one attribution study -</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">"Global temperature evolution 1979–2010" - Foster & Rahmstorf, 2011</span></b></p><p style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><i><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">...........we list the linear trend in the signals due to ENSO, volcanic forcing and solar variation in table 3.</span></i></p><p style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><i><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The magnitudes of these trend contributions are quite small compared to the overall trends.</span></i></p><p style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><i><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">In fact the net trend due to these three factors is negative for all data sets except UAH, for which it is zero. Hence these factors have not contributed to an upward trend in temperature data, rather they have contributed a very slight downward trend</span></i></p><p style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">OK - so without human activity, the Earth would be cooling very very slowly, because the sum effect of 'natural' forcings is very very slightly negative.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">All the other forcings have been investigated in this way, and the conclusions are the same.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="background-color: white; color: #757575; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; padding: 6pt 0pt 0pt;"><br /></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-1116675031046639202020-07-31T07:16:00.000+01:002020-07-31T07:16:00.798+01:00Climate Change - The UK in 2019<p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #404040; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The State of the UK Climate report, published by the Royal Meteorological Society <span style="font-size: 1rem;">shows that <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-53601257">UK temperatures in 2019 were 1.1° C above the 1961-1990 long-term average.</a></span></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #404040; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mike Kendon, lead author of the report, said: “Our report shows climate change is exerting an increasing impact on the UK.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #404040; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“This year was warmer than any other year in the UK between 1884 and 1990, and to find a year in the coldest 10 we have to go back to 1963.”</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #404040; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Dr Mark McCarthy, from the Met Office, added it was a particularly wet year across parts of central and northern England.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #404040; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="Rescuers using a boat to get around Rotherham" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/E6E5/production/_109590195_mediaitem109590194.jpg" /></p><p style="border: 0px; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 13px;"><b>Rescuers used boats to reach people trapped in Rotherham as days of persistent rain led to almost 50 flood warnings across England in November 2019</b></span></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #404040; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">He said: "It’s worth noting that since 2009 the UK has now had its wettest February, April, June, November and December on record – five out of 12 months."</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #404040; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img height="367" src="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/gallery/metofficegovuk/images/about-us/press-office/charts-and-maps/daily-temp-mean-2019.png" width="651" /></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #404040; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/weather-overview-2019">Graphic from UK Met Office.</a></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #404040; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #404040; font-family: Helmet, Freesans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: 1rem;"><br /></span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-2199397236828286482020-07-25T22:24:00.001+01:002020-07-25T22:24:10.556+01:00Climate Change - Greenland<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The invention of the name "<b>Greenland"</b> may mark the start of the advertising industry.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The <a href="https://notendur.hi.is/haukurth/utgafa/greenlanders.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Saga of the Greenlanders</span></a> tells how <b>Erik the Red</b>, the Icelandic Viking who wanted to get people to join his planned settlement, called it Greenland because a pleasant name would attract more settlers:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i>He called the land which he had found Greenland, because, quoth he, "people will be attracted thither, if the land has a good name." </i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The <b>ice sheet</b> on Greenland covers most of this huge island.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><img src="http://thebluegrassspecial.com/archive/2010/december10/imagesdec10/greenland-map.jpg" /></span><img src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/01/07/science/earth/0108-sci-GREENLANDlg.jpg" height="576" width="640" /><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/total-masseaendring" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Greenland is losing ice, and the mass of ice lost is measured by satellites called GRACE.</span></a></span></span><br />
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<img alt="Embedded image permalink" height="627" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CM8mJq4UcAQLLAb.jpg" width="640" /><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=85858" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">A survey of Greenland's glaciers</span></a> has shown they are speeding up.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The speed has increased by about 30% in 10 years.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/6/eaav9396"><span style="color: blue;">A paper published in June 2019</span></a> predicts that </span><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px;">Greenland will very likely become ice free within a millennium without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">A new NASA project called </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><a href="http://science.nasa.gov/missions/omg/" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG)</span></a></b> </span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">will observe changing water temperatures on the continental shelf surrounding Greenland, and how marine glaciers react to the presence of warm, salty Atlantic water.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Updates about Greenland's ice sheet are regularly posted by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.</span></a></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-24456262805313536512020-07-23T21:17:00.004+01:002020-07-23T21:17:33.465+01:00Climate Change - The End-Permian Mass Extinction<div style="background-color: white; line-height: 15px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;">Five major </span><a href="http://www.nhm.ac.uk/nature-online/life/dinosaurs-other-extinct-creatures/mass-extinctions/" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;"><b>mass extinction</b></span></a><span style="color: #333333;"> events are recorded in the rock record of the last 600 million years.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The biggest extinction was at the end of the <b>Permian</b>, around 252 million years ago.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;">It is called the </span><span style="color: blue; font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://palaeo.gly.bris.ac.uk/PTB/causes.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">End-Permian mass extinction.</span></a></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Only about 8% of species survived to live on in the Triassic Period.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><img height="258" src="https://3c1703fe8d.site.internapcdn.net/newman/gfx/news/hires/2012/4-view(1).jpg" width="400" /></span></div>
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<a href="https://phys.org/news/2012-10-geochemical-analysis-chinese-permian-triassic-mass.html" style="font-size: 12.544px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;">Field photograph of the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) section at Xiakou, Hubei Province, </span></span></a></div>
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<a href="https://phys.org/news/2012-10-geochemical-analysis-chinese-permian-triassic-mass.html" style="font-size: 12.544px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;">South China.</span></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;">The event played out over 60,000 years.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 1.375;"><b>Acidification of the oceans</b> lasted for about 10,000 years.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Two separate pulses of CO2 into the atmosphere - a "one-two punch" - may have been involved in the die-off, according to <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/348/6231/229" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">new research.</span></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 1.375;">CO2 was released by massive volcanism from the <b>Siberian Traps</b>, now represented as a large region of volcanic rock. </span></div>
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<a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n2/abs/ngeo1069.html" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition: all 0.15s ease-out 0s;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;">Researchers have found fly ash, one of the products of coal combustion, in rocks laid down just before this extinction event.</span></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">A large amount of coal had been burned over a period of tens of thousands of years.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The coal was burned by the Siberian Traps volcanic activity.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;">The burning actually </span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00083-9"><span style="color: blue;">happened underground</span></a><span style="color: #333333;">, with the carbon dioxide and ash mixing with magma.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This produced vast amounts of CO2 which warmed the Earth and changed the chemistry of the oceans.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The research team, led by </span><b style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">Dr Matthew Clarkson</b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> from the University of Edinburgh, examined rocks in the United Arab Emirates. </span></div>
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<img alt="Siberian Traps" src="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/media/images/82213000/jpg/_82213692_82213689.jpg" /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The rocks, </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 17.6px;">which were on the ocean floor at the time,</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 1.375;"> preserve a detailed record of changing oceanic conditions.</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 1.375;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 1.375;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 1.375;">The carbon was released at a similar rate to modern emissions. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 1.375;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 17.6px;"><a href="http://phys.org/news/2015-04-greatest-mass-extinction-driven-acidic.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Changes to ocean acidity would have been one of the consequences.</span></a></span></div>
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<img src="http://www.otago.ac.nz/cs/groups/public/@otagocommunications/documents/contributorimg/otago090193.jpg" /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Dr Clarkson says "Scientists have long suspected that an <b>ocean acidification event</b> occurred during the greatest mass extinction of all time, but direct evidence has been lacking until now.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">"This is a worrying finding, considering that we can already see an increase in ocean acidity today that is the result of human carbon emissions."</span><br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-84862823292958157012020-07-22T21:51:00.002+01:002020-07-22T21:51:49.374+01:00Climate Change - El Nino<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>El Niño</b> is an <a href="http://phys.org/news/2014-06-el-nino-la-nina.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific</span></a>, and has important consequences for weather around the world.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">El Niño</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> happens every three to seven years.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">“El Niño” is Spanish for “The Little Boy”.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Peruvian fishermen named the event many years ago.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">They noticed that every few years around Christmas, virtually no fish could be found in the unusually warm waters. </span></div>
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<img height="545" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Fgcul-2vAFo/TsnWRnZ6EQI/AAAAAAAAEZA/dYEhI2RxwxY/s640/1a%2BEl%2Bnino%2Band%2Bla%2Bnina.png" width="640" /></div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">El Niño is marked by <b>unusually warm ocean temperatures</b> in the Equatorial Pacific.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The opposite conditions are called <b>La Nina</b> (The Little Girl), characterized by <b>unusually cold ocean temperatures</b> in the Equatorial Pacific. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://rockyrexscience.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/the-warming-earth-temperature-evidence.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">El Nino clearly affects global temperatures.</span></a></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #323232; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 26px;">One piece of evidence that world temperatures are rising is that every </span><a href="http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html" style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 26px;" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;"><b>La Nina</b></span></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #323232; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 26px;"> ‘year’ since 1998 was warmer than every </span><a href="http://kids.earth.nasa.gov/archive/nino/intro.html" style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 26px;" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;"><b>El Nino</b></span></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #323232; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 26px;"> ‘year’ before 1995: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><img height="207" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/proxy/kSZuGeFGFwbCV4Jz80SqPqZ9zSOMUUXxOJLPHTV2MZGz_yqn6Wd3iY4R9nMOcQ1OVKrJAHCOGmG6yXbNnLPAEWQpCr4cfLFC1CuptcWTvcOXfyAoOz6QmWya" width="640" /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">As the Earth warms, each El Nino 'rides' on a higher base-line global temperature:</span><br />
<img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZfuCTzUAAAJ7cp.jpg" /><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The <a href="http://rockyrexscience.blogspot.co.uk/2016/01/climate-change-2015-warmest-year-in.html"><span style="color: blue;">record-breaking temperatures of 2015</span></a> were partly boosted by <a href="http://www.news.gatech.edu/features/what-el-nino-event"><span style="color: blue;">an El Nino event</span></a> ... but 2015 would have been the warmest year in the modern record even if there had been no El Nino.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Information about El Nino is provided in bulletins produced by the US </span><a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">National Weather Service</span></a><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> and the </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://rockyrexscience.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/planet-earth-earth-from-space.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Australian Bureau of Meteorology.</span></a></span></span>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; white-space: pre-wrap;">What do scientists who research climate change say?</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Professor Tim Palmer FRS, Royal Society Research Professor in Climate Physics, University of Oxford:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.1; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">“T</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.1; white-space: pre-wrap;">he threat of dangerous man-made changes to global climate is quite unequivocal. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.1; white-space: pre-wrap;">It follows that if we want to reduce this threat, we must cut our emissions of greenhouse gases."</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.1; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.1; white-space: pre-wrap;">Professor John Shepherd FRS, Ocean & Earth Science, University of Southampton:</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.1; white-space: pre-wrap;">“The evidence is very clear that the world is warming, and that human activities are the main cause. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Natural changes and fluctuations do occur but they are relatively small."</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.1; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.1; white-space: pre-wrap;">Professor Joanna Haigh CBE FRS, Professor of Atmospheric Physics, Imperial College London:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.1; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><img src="http://www.imperial.ac.uk/icimages?p_imgid=578853" /><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.1; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.1; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">“</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.1; white-space: pre-wrap;">The concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere now exceeds anything it has experienced in the past 3 million years and its continuing upward trend is almost certain to result in further global warming." </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.1; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.1; white-space: pre-wrap;">Professor Sir Brian Hoskins FRS, Director of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.1; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /><img src="http://i3.getreading.co.uk/incoming/article7064357.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/Sir-Brian-Hoskins.jpg" /></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.1; white-space: pre-wrap;">“The evidence of changes in many different aspects of the climate system, from the ice sheets to the deep ocean, shows that climate change is happening. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.1; white-space: pre-wrap;">To reduce the serious risks posed by increasing changes in the climate, we need to redouble our efforts globally to limit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>The Royal Society has also published a <a href="https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/projects/climate-evidence-causes/climate-change-q-and-a.pdf" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">"Short Guide to Climate Change"</span></a> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In addition, the Royal Society has produced a 2017 update on recent research -</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "guardian text sans web" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/publications/2017/climate-updates/"><span style="color: blue;"><b>"What have we learnt since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report?"</b></span></a></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Another organisation offering an important document is the <b><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.geolsoc.org.uk/about" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Geological Society of London.</span></a></span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span><img src="http://www.nwhgeopark.com/wp-content/uploads/geolsoc.png" /><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The Geological Society of London say -</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This rate of increase of CO2 is unprecedented.....</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">even in comparison with the massive injection of carbon into the atmosphere 55 million years ago that led to the major PETM warming event....</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">and is likely to lead to a similar rise in both temperature and sea level. </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">From.....</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><a href="http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/climaterecord" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Climate Change: Evidence from the Geological Record</span></a></b></span></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875354456204614217.post-23579382304256895472020-07-20T21:03:00.001+01:002020-07-20T21:03:22.419+01:00Climate Change - 1816 - The Year Without a Summer<div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #191919; display: inline; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px; margin-bottom: 17px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The climate can react to sudden shocks.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The weather in <b>1816</b> was very strange. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Spring arrived, but then everything seemed to turn backward, as cold temperatures returned. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The sky seemed permanently overcast. </span></div>
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<img src="http://scied.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/images/large_image_for_image_content/1816_summer.png" height="435" width="640" /></div>
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T<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">he lack of sunlight became so </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">severe that farmers lost their crops.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Food shortages were reported in Ireland, France, England, and the United States.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">1816 became known as <a href="http://history1800s.about.com/od/crimesanddisasters/a/The-Year-Without-A-Summer.htm" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">"The Year without a Summer"</span></a> or "18-hundred-and-frozen-to-death".</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">It was over 100 years before anyone understood the reason for this weather disaster.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #191919;">The eruption of an enormous volcano on a remote island in the Indian Ocean a year earlier had </span><a href="http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/cp-2016-78/"><span style="color: blue;">thrown enormous amounts of volcanic ash</span></a><span style="color: #191919;"> into the upper atmosphere.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #191919;">The dust from </span><span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/tambora.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;"><b>Mount Tambora</b></span></a></span><span style="color: #191919;">, which had erupted in early April 1815, had shrouded the globe. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">With sunlight blocked, 1816 did not have a normal summer.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In Switzerland, the dismal summer of 1816 led to the writing of a famous story. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">A group of writers, including Lord Byron, Percy Bysshe Shelley, and his future wife Mary, challenged each other to write dark tales, inspired by the gloomy and chilly weather.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #191919;">During the miserable weather </span><a data-component="link" data-inlink="iVMpOowILbOtASf589H5Vw==" data-ordinal="4" data-source="inlineLink" data-type="internalLink" href="http://classiclit.about.com/cs/profileswriters/p/aa_mshelley.htm" style="background-position: 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: blue;"><b>Mary Shelley</b></span></a><span style="color: #191919;"> wrote her classic novel </span><em style="background-position: 0px 0px; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #191919; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Frankenstein</b></em><span style="color: #191919;">.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.laphamsquarterly.org/disaster/charts-graphs/aftershocks"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">Graphic from Lapham's Quarterly.</span></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #191919;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #191919;">This event was not unique.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #191919;"><br /></span></span><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150708133858.htm" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">A new study has found that 15 of the 16 coldest summers recorded between 500 B.C. and A.D. 1,000 followed large volcanic eruptions.</span></a></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Volcanic events can cool the Earth for a few years.</span></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><span style="line-height: 19.512px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The large eruption of <a href="http://www.philippines.hvu.nl/volcanoes2.htm" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Mount Pinatubo</span></a> caused a dip in global temperatures in the early 1990s:</span></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 19.512px;">Mount Pinatubo 1991</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">In 1258 there was a European famine across many countries, and this is now linked to a major eruption in 1257 on Lombok in Indonesia - it has a much bigger</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"> </span><a href="http://www.chem.hope.edu/~polik/warming/IceCore/IceCore2.html" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span style="color: blue;">sulphate peak in the ice cores</span></a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"> </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">than Tambora, so it was a bigger eruption.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In 536 AD a </span><span style="color: #333333;">mysterious fog plunged Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Asia into darkness, day and night—for 18 months.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "roboto" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;">An analysis of ice from a Swiss glacier by a team at the Climate Change Institute of The University of Maine (UM) in Orono has </span><a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/11/why-536-was-worst-year-be-alive"><span style="color: blue;">reported</span></a><span style="color: #333333;"> that a cataclysmic volcanic eruption in Iceland spewed ash across the Northern Hemisphere early in 536. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "roboto" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "roboto" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;">Two other massive eruptions followed, in 540 and 547. The repeated blows, followed by plague, plunged Europe into economic stagnation that lasted until 640.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "roboto" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Temperatures in the summer of 536 fell 1.5°C to 2.5°C, initiating the coldest decade in the past 2300 years. Snow fell that summer in China; crops failed; people starved. The Irish chronicles record "a failure of bread from the years 536–539."</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com