ROCKY REX'S SCIENCE BITES

In science correlation + mechanism = evidence of a causative relationship Is there a correlation between CO2 levels and global temperatures? Here is a 500 million year correlation https://media.springernature.com/.../426313_1_En_1_Fig1... Is there a correlation between anthropogenic CO2 and global temperatures. Here is a 250 year correlation between the two. http://berkeleyearth.org/.../03/results-plot-volcanoes.jpg What is the mechanism for CO2 a a greenhouse gas? That mechanism has been known for 2 centuries. https://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm Here is an explanation of the mechanism of the "greenhouse effect". https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/.../intro_atmo_chem... How do we know the increase in CO2 is anthropogenic? Carbon isotope analysis of the ratios of C14, C13 and C12 traces the 50% increase in CO2 since the mid 18th century to the burning of fossil fuels https://www.climate.gov/.../how-do-we-know-build-carbon... What about natural forcings? Natural forcings wou

  From  https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ Arctic sea ice area changes with the seasons, but there is a long-term decline*, caused by global warming. Most scientific sources suggest there might be a few days of "ice-free" conditions in the Arctic Ocean one summer around mid-century. Ice-free sea (being darker) absorbs heat, while ice reflects heat. Progressively over time, more "ice-free" days are likely, on average.  But what exactly does an "ice-free Arctic Ocean" mean? For measurement purposes, researchers divide the ocean up into small cells. The data cells are 25 km by 25 km. If there is more than 15% ice on a cell, it counts as an "ice-covered" cell. If there is less than 15% ice on a cell, it counts as "ice-free". At some time, the Arctic Ocean one September will meet the 'ice-free' criterion - each cell will be counted as ice-free as long as there is less than 15% ice in the cell. But an 'ice-free' Arctic Ocean

Useful graphics    From the following source, where there is plenty of additional material: https://www.wri.org/insights/2023-ipcc-ar6-synthesis-report-climate-change-findings Also:   https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/20/humanity-at-climate-crossroads-highway-to-hell-or-a-livable-future IPCC links.....  (1) Press Release: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/press/IPCC_AR6_SYR_PressRelease_en.pdf (2) Headline Statements: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/resources/spm-headline-statements (3)  Slide-show: https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SlideDeck.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1FD9sBJGgFBiDgC_ioAoM2t8qGqj4XktnYP4nwMY1IlLVNfGrxHPrF5Qw

1800-1870  Level of carbon dioxide gas (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere, as later measured in  ancient ice , was about 290 ppm (parts per million). Global temperature for 1850-1870 was about 13.6°C. 1824 Jean-Baptiste Joseph F ourier  calculated that the Earth would be far colder if it lacked an atmosphere.  1856 Eunice Foote   describes filling glass jars with water vapour, carbon dioxide and air, and comparing how much they heated up in the sun. “The highest effect of the sun’s rays I have found to be in carbonic acid gas,”    “The receiver containing the gas became itself much heated – very sensibly more so than the other – and on being removed, it was many times as long in cooling.” 1859 John Tyndall  discovered that some gases block infra-red radiation.  He suggested that  changes in the concentration of the gases  could bring  climate change . 1896  Arrhenius  published the first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO 2 . 1930s  Milutin Milankovitch  proposed orbital c

The climate can react to sudden shocks. The weather in  1816  was very strange.    Spring arrived, but then everything seemed to turn backward, as cold temperatures returned.   The sky seemed permanently overcast.  T he lack of sunlight became so  severe that farmers lost their crops.    Food shortages were reported in Ireland, France, England, and the United States. 1816 became known as  "The Year without a Summer"  or "18-hundred-and-frozen-to-death". It was over 100 years before anyone understood the reason for this weather disaster.    The eruption of an enormous volcano on a remote island in the Indian Ocean a year earlier had  thrown enormous amounts of volcanic ash  into the upper atmosphere. The dust from  Mount Tambora , which had erupted in early April 1815, had shrouded the globe.  With sunlight blocked, 1816 did not have a normal summer.   In Switzerland, the dismal summer of 1816 led to the writing of a famous story.  A group of writers, including Lord

"Carbon Burps" ?? What are Carbon Burps? They are sudden releases of carbon from ancient rocks. They show up in the geological record as changes in geochemistry (so they are found by using fairly complex laboratory tests on rocks) They are associated with extinction events, but the scale of extinction varies a lot. The most extreme geological example of events like this is the end-Permian , when igneous activity broke through coal seams in Siberia. The interaction of hot magma and coal produced lots of CO2. The end-Permian event reduced oceanic biodiversity by about 92%. Recovery of biodiversity took about 10 million years - the fossil record from the next part of geological time, the early Triassic, is very thin. Messing with planetary systems isn't wise. One event with possibly closer similarities to what we are doing was about 56 million years ago, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum . The PETM mechanism (according to some good research) involved volcanic action bre