ROCKY REX'S SCIENCE BITES

T he  Gulf Stream  transports vast amounts of heat north, from the equator to the pole, passing off the East Coast of the U.S. and into the North Atlantic. The  Northern Hemisphere winter of 2014-15  was the warmest on record globally, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.  But one area of the  North Atlantic   was the coldest on record... shown in blue on this map. This cold pool may be  an indicator of a dramatic slowdown in the  Gulf Stream. A slowdown like this in the current has not happened for a very long time, perhaps as long as 1,000 years.  It is possibly related to the melting of the  Greenland  ice sheet.  The  freshwater  from the ice sheet  is  lighter  than heavier, salty water that usually occupies that area.  It tends to sit on top of the water,  interfering with the sinking of dense, cold and salt-rich water. The Gulf Stream transpo...

Oil is a  fossil fuel . It was formed from chemicals from ancient living things. To make the chemicals in oil, the  temperatures  and  pressures  needed to be just right. The oil (and gas) will only stay in the reservoir if there are  suitable structures  in the rocks: The carbon compounds from the plants and animals have been trapped for hundreds of millions of years. They have been burned to make carbon dioxide in a very short time. The amount of carbon dioxide in the air has changed very quickly. Diagram of how oil is made Source:  Library and Archives Canada © Library and Archives Canada

What is the worst-case scenario for climate change? The geological record shows that when the atmosphere suddenly changes, there are big effects on living things. Five major   mass extinction   events are recorded in the rock record of the last 600 million years. The biggest extinction was at the end of the   Permian ,  around 252 million years ago. It is called the   End-Permian mass extinction. Only about 8% of species survived to live on in the Triassic Period. Chongqing Special Administrative Region (SAR) in central China, showing a hillside that includes rocks crossing the end-Permian extinction event and the Permian-Triassic boundary. Researchers have found evidence of a compound called fly ash, one of the products of coal combustion, in rocks laid down just before this extinction event.  A large amount of coal had been burned over a period of tens of thousands of years. The  coal was burned by volcanic eru...

W hy can’t recent  climate change  just be an effect of 'natural causes'? There have been climate changes in the past 2000 years. People talk about times called the  Medieval Warm Period  and  the  Little Ice Age . Careful research  has shown that the current temperature is warmer than the Medieval Warm Period - temperatures between 1000 and 1100 AD were probably similar to parts of the 20th century, but 21st century temperatures are already warmer. The Medieval Warm Period may not even have been a global event -  glaciers on Baffin Island   were no smaller during that time. A particularly cool period is often called the   Little Ice Age. However,   the name "Little Ice Age" is now regarded by some scientistsas misleading. The best estimate of the drop in temperature is, at most, 0.5°C,  compared to the temperature decreases in "real" ice ages of about 8°C.   Also, the "Little Ice Age" only lasted for 500 years ...

Some people confuse 'climate' with 'weather' - but i f 'climate' and 'weather' are the same, why would there be two words? Other people say "We call climate change 'winter' and 'summer'...."   What does the word ' climate ' mean? It normally means  the average of conditions over 30 years . Climate  normally means 'an average over 3 conventional decades'. A  conventional decade  is, for example, 2001-2010, or 1961-1970. So ..... 3 full, conventional decades......such as 1981 to 2010. For example .... average temperature in Ireland, 1961-1990: And another example -  ' A verage temperature 1951-1980' The definition of 'climate' goes back at least 100 years. So if we are discussing  climate change , that is what 'climate' means. But in recent times, there has been a lot of variation in global temperatures. So it can be useful to look at  single conventio...

Carbon dioxide  levels in the atmosphere are rising. This graph showing the data is called the  Keeling Curve . The small up-and-down pattern is caused by changes during each year -  in the summer in the northern hemisphere, there is more photosynthesis which causes CO2 levels to fall. The Keeling Curve is named after the scientist who first produced accurate measurements of carbon dioxide in the air -  Charles David Keeling.     Charles David Keeling in the lab. Keeling's collection of data began in 1958. Concentration is measured in  p arts  p er  m illion (ppm) March 2015 was the first time for hundreds of thousands of years that CO2 exceeded 400 ppm for a whole month. Ice core data  shows humans have never breathed air containing so much CO2. Since Keeling began recording, CO2 has risen from 318 ppm to 400 ppm... a rise of around 25%.   The fastest rise of CO 2  in the air seen in   the ice...

According to the  Royal Society ....... If human emissions of CO 2  stopped altogether... .... it would take thousands of years for atmospheric CO 2  to return to ‘pre-industrial’ levels. " The climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel CO 2  to the atmosphere will last longer than Stonehenge, " says  University of Chicago oceanographer  David  Archer. "Longer than time capsules, longer than nuclear waste, far longer than the age of human civilization so far." Why is that? It takes a long time for deep oceans to bury the carbon dioxide in ocean sediments.  Lifee on the abyssal sea floor (depths ranging from 4000-6000 m) near the Hudson Canyon off the coast of New Jersey. Photo taken using the Deep Submersible Research Vessel (DSRV)  Alvin's camera system.  Image courtesy of Deep East 2001, NOAA/OER. Surface temperatures would stay high for at least a thousand years. Humans would face  a warmer planet due to past and curre...